Future land use maps for the Netherlands for the Dutch One Health SSPs

We have created future land use maps for the Netherlands for 2050, based on the Dutch One Health Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). This was done using the DynaCLUE modelling framework. Future land use is based on altitude, soil properties, groundwater, salinity, flood risk, agricultural land price, distance to transport hubs and climate. We also account for anticipated demand for different land use types, historic land use changes and potential spatial restrictions. These land maps will enable detailed modelling of a wide variety of future health challenges in the Netherlands, such as disease risk, water quality and pollution. In addition, the methodology and assumptions used can inform research in other urban deltas. Here we provide all model input and output files.

Methods
We used the DynaCLUE modelling framework. A full description of how all model inputs were derived is provided in the accompanying paper.

We made future land use maps for the Netherlands for 2050, based on the Dutch One Health Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02169-1). Maps were created for SSP1, 3, 4 and 5. We considered five land use types: urban, pasture, crops, forest and non-forest nature.  The maps were created on a 1km grid.

The main steps were:

Classify land use types
Use historic Dutch land use data to determine the likelihood of changes
Determine demand for each land use type under each scenario
Determine possible predictors of change (from literature) and use logistic regression to determine how they affect land use type
Define spatial restrictions and preferences affecting land use change under each scenario
Define additional model parameters and inputs
Run the model to create land use maps for each SSP scenario

We also validated the model by starting it in the year 1990 and seeing how well it predicted land use in 2018.