Future land use maps for the Netherlands for the Dutch One Health SSPs

We have created future land use maps for the Netherlands for 2050, based on the Dutch One Health Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). This was done using the DynaCLUE modelling framework. Future land use is based on altitude, soil properties, groundwater, salinity, flood risk, agricultural land price, distance to transport hubs and climate. We also account for anticipated demand for different land use types, historic land use changes and potential spatial restrictions. These land maps will enable detailed modelling of a wide variety of future health challenges in the Netherlands, such as disease risk, water quality and pollution. In addition, the methodology and assumptions used can inform research in other urban deltas. Here we provide all model input and output files. Methods We used the DynaCLUE modelling framework. A full description of how all model inputs were derived is provided in the accompanying paper. We made future land use maps for the Netherlands for 2050, based on the Dutch One Health Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02169-1). Maps were created for SSP1, 3, 4 and 5. We considered five land use types: urban, pasture, crops, forest and non-forest nature. The maps were created on a 1km grid. The main steps were: Classify land use types Use historic Dutch land use data to determine the likelihood of changes Determine demand for each land use type under each scenario Determine possible predictors of change (from literature) and use logistic regression to determine how they affect land use type Define spatial restrictions and preferences affecting land use change under each scenario Define additional model parameters and inputs Run the model to create land use maps for each SSP scenario We also validated the model by starting it in the year 1990 and seeing how well it predicted land use in 2018.本研究基于荷兰One Health共享社会经济路径（Shared Socio-economic Pathways, SSPs），采用DynaCLUE建模框架，构建了荷兰2050年未来土地利用地图集。未来土地利用格局的模拟综合考量海拔、土壤属性、地下水状况、盐度、洪涝风险、农业用地价格、距交通枢纽的距离以及气候条件等多类因子，同时纳入不同土地利用类型的预期需求、历史土地利用变化特征与潜在空间约束条件。 该土地利用地图集可支撑荷兰境内各类未来健康挑战的精细化建模研究，例如疾病传播风险、水质与污染状况等。此外，本研究采用的方法与假设可对其他城市三角洲地区的相关研究提供参考。本研究同时提供全部模型输入与输出文件。 ## 研究方法 本研究采用DynaCLUE建模框架。所有模型输入因子的详细推导过程已在随附论文中予以说明。 本研究基于荷兰One Health共享社会经济路径（SSPs）（DOI: 10.1007/s10113-023-02169-1），构建了荷兰2050年未来土地利用地图集，涵盖SSP1、SSP3、SSP4与SSP5四种情景。本研究共划定五类土地利用类型：城镇用地、牧草地、耕地、林地与非林自然用地。所有地图均基于1km分辨率网格生成。 主要研究步骤如下： 1. 开展土地利用类型分类 2. 利用荷兰历史土地利用数据确定土地利用转换概率 3. 确定各情景下各类土地利用类型的需求规模 4. 筛选潜在的土地利用变化驱动因子（基于已有研究文献），并通过逻辑回归分析其对土地利用类型的影响机制 5. 明确各情景下影响土地利用变化的空间约束与偏好条件 6. 设定额外模型参数与输入因子 7. 运行模型以生成各SSP情景下的土地利用地图 本研究同时以1990年为模型初始年份，通过验证模型对2018年土地利用状况的预测精度完成模型校验。