The textile industry in Brazil: an econometric model analyzing the deindustrialization hypothesis

Abstract In the last few years, a possible process of deindustrialization is observed in Brazil. For some researchers, such as the new developmentalists, this scenario is already evident; but for others, such as orthodox economists, it is not possible to diagnose the existence of this process in Brazil. By analyzing the present Brazilian scenario with a slowdown in the economy and reduced purchasing power of families, it is possible to ascertain a deep downturn in the weight of the manufacturing industry in the GDP. This process differs from the one that has occurred in advanced economies, which was healthy and steady. In Brazil, the deindustrialization process can be analyzed from the perspective of the textile industry, especially with market openness to Chinese products. Thus, this work will aim to present, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the relationship between the deindustrialization processes of the textile industry in Brazil from 1995 to 2015, using Brazilian macroeconomic variables.

摘要
近年来，巴西已显现出去工业化的潜在进程。部分学者，如新发展主义学者（new developmentalists），认为该态势已然凸显；但另有部分学者，如正统经济学家，则认为无法判定巴西境内存在此类进程。结合当前巴西经济增速放缓、家庭购买力下滑的现实情境分析可知，该国制造业在GDP中的占比已出现大幅下滑。该进程与发达经济体曾经历的健康且平稳的去工业化进程存在显著差异。针对巴西的去工业化进程，可依托纺织业展开剖析，尤其是在该国市场对中国产品开放的背景下。据此，本研究拟借助向量误差修正模型（Vector Error Correction Model, VECM），结合巴西宏观经济变量，阐释1995年至2015年巴西纺织业去工业化进程与相关宏观经济变量之间的关联。