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The frequent occurrence of various urban disasters poses risks to human survival and welfare, and it is of great significance to evaluate the urban medical system carrying capacity (UMSCC), monitor the spatial and temporal patterns of the UMSCC and identify their obstacle factors to improve the public medical system and rationalize medical resource allocation. In this paper, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA), which includes 27 major cities, is taken as a case study. A UMSCC evaluation model is constructed and the gravity center shift trajectory is analyzed by using the ArcGIS software. The results indicate that the UMSCC of the 27 cities in the YRDUA can be classified into 5 levels: the lowers (0.193-0.335), the lows (0.335-0.425), the mediums (0.425-0.489), the highs (0.489-0.549) and the highers (0.549-0.619). From 2011-2021, the UMSCC level in all the 27 cities from the YRDUA increased annually, and during this period, the gravity center of the UMSCC was concentrated in Xuancheng, and the migration trend was southwest. Moreover, there is a positive correlation between the city type and the level of UMSCC: the larger of the city is, the higher of the UMSCC level is; however, the gap between the levels of UMSCC in different city types in the YRDUA gradually narrows and tends to be consistent, which reflects the development trend of medical system integration in the region. Finally, it is concluded that the key obstacle indicators of the UMSCC in the YRDUA can be attributed to the proportion of medical financial expenditure, the number of beds, the number of registered nurses and the urban digital development level. Correspondingly, the suggestions are proposed.各类城市灾害频发，对人类生存与福祉构成严峻威胁。评估城市医疗系统承载力（Urban Medical System Carrying Capacity，UMSCC）、监测其时空分布格局并识别其障碍因子，对于完善公共医疗体系、合理配置医疗资源具有重要意义。 本文以涵盖27个主要城市的长三角城市群（Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration，YRDUA）为研究案例，构建UMSCC评估模型，并借助ArcGIS软件分析其重心转移轨迹。 研究结果显示，长三角城市群27个城市的UMSCC可划分为5个等级：最低级（0.193~0.335）、低级（0.335~0.425）、中级（0.425~0.489）、高级（0.489~0.549）及最高级（0.549~0.619）。 2011至2021年间，长三角城市群所有27个城市的UMSCC水平均逐年提升；此期间UMSCC的空间重心始终集中于宣城市，且整体呈现向西南方向迁移的态势。 此外，城市规模与UMSCC水平呈显著正相关：城市规模越大，UMSCC水平越高；但长三角城市群内不同规模城市的UMSCC水平差距正逐步缩小并趋于均衡，这直观反映了该区域医疗体系一体化的发展趋势。 最后，研究得出结论：长三角城市群UMSCC的关键障碍指标可归结为医疗财政支出占比、医疗机构床位数量、注册护士数量以及城市数字化发展水平。据此，本文提出了针对性的优化建议。