Phylogeny Predicts Future Habitat Shifts Due to Climate Change

BackgroundTaxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change.MethodologyWe used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes.ConclusionsPhylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8–77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.背景类群（BackgroundTaxa）对气候变化的响应可能因系统发育或生态效应而异，但能够区分这些不同影响路径的研究仍较为匮乏。本研究选取来自全球分布蜘蛛支系的两组物种对，每一组物种对分别对应两种生活型（泛化种、特化种），以此检验系统发育与生态因素在预测物种对气候变化响应中的相对重要性。 研究方法：我们基于最新的络新妇科蜘蛛（Nephilidae）系统发育假说，从两个属（Nephilingis与Nephilengys）中筛选出符合上述标准的4个物种：这些物种彼此完全呈异域分布，但整体覆盖了所有亚热带-热带区域。基于其分布记录，我们通过定制化地理信息系统（GIS）工具与未来气候变化情景数据，分别模拟了每个物种的生态位空间，并预测了它们在未来20年、40年、60年和80年的生态位变化。 研究结论：相较于生活型，系统发育因素能更准确地预测物种当前的生态偏好。至2080年，所有物种的适宜栖息地均将出现大幅缩减（缩减幅度为54.8%至77.1%），它们将通过向更高海拔与纬度区域迁移以适应气候变化，但迁移速率各不相同。系统发育与生活型能够解释物种在海拔维度上的模拟栖息地迁移模式，而系统发育则是唯一可最佳预测纬度迁移的因素。纳入系统发育亲缘关系的模型，是精准预测生物类群对全球变化响应的重要辅助工具。