Data for: 3558526

The concept of Fuzzy Time Series to predict things that will happen based on the data in the past, while Markov Chain assist in estimating the changes that may occur in the future. With methods are used to predict the incidence of natural disasters in the future. From the research that has been done, it appears the change, an increase of each disaster, like a tornado reaches 3%, floods reaches 16%, landslides reaches 7%, transport accidents reached 25% and volcanic eruptions as high as 50%.模糊时间序列（Fuzzy Time Series）的核心思路是基于历史数据预测未来将发生的事件，而马尔可夫链（Markov Chain）则可辅助预估未来可能出现的变化。上述两类方法被应用于未来自然灾害发生频次的预测任务。据已开展的相关研究显示，各类灾害的发生频次均呈现上升趋势：龙卷风增长3%、洪水增长16%、滑坡增长7%、交通事故增长25%，火山喷发增幅更是高达50%。