Droughts and their impacts on the municipality of Boqueirão, PB, Brazil

Abstract Droughts are natural phenomena that occur when precipitation falls below average in a given region. However, no consensus exists regarding the definition of this term due to differing hydro meteorological and socioeconomic variables in various regions of the world. In this work, we identified and analyzed droughts and their impacts on the municipality of Boqueirão - PB. We used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify droughts. Regarding impacts, we analyzed agricultural data from 2011, 2012 and 2013 as well as data relating to livestock and agricultural products produced in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. The most severe droughts in Boqueirão municipality occurred in the years 1980-1982, 1998-2000 and 2012-2013. The greatest impact was observed in 1998-2000. The droughts have drastically reduced agriculture production and water supply in the region. The most severe impacts during the drought of 2012-2014 occurred in 2012 and 2013. Temporary crops were more affected than the permanent ones. This was because most of the permanent crops were irrigated, unlike the temporary ones. The greatest reduction of animals also occurred during 2012 and 2013, with a direct relationship between precipitation and herd populations. The droughts caused no reduction in the value of production.

摘要：干旱是指某一区域降水量低于长期平均水平的自然现象。但由于全球各区域的水文气象与社会经济变量存在差异，目前学界对干旱的定义尚未达成统一共识。本研究针对巴西帕拉伊巴州博克尔昂市（Boqueirão-PB）的干旱事件及其影响展开识别与分析，采用标准化降水指数（Standardized Precipitation Index，SPI）进行干旱识别。在影响分析环节，我们分析了2011、2012及2013年的农业数据，以及2011、2012、2013与2014年的畜牧业与农产品生产相关数据。博克尔昂市最严重的干旱事件分别发生于1980-1982年、1998-2000年以及2012-2013年，其中1998-2000年的干旱造成的影响最为显著。干旱已对该区域的农业生产与供水系统造成严重冲击，大幅削减了相关产出。2012-2014年干旱期间，最严重的影响集中出现在2012与2013年。相较于多年生作物，短期作物受干旱的影响更为严重，这是由于多数多年生作物采用灌溉种植，而短期作物多依赖自然降水。牲畜存栏量的最大降幅同样出现在2012与2013年，降水量与畜群规模之间存在直接关联。本次干旱并未造成农产品产值的缩减。