Eutrophication indicators in the Baltic Sea 1970-2100 and nutrient loads to three coastal systems. BALTSEM model simulations and observations.

Dataset and model code accompanying manuscript: Ehrnsten, E. Humborg C., Gustafsson, E. and Gustafsson B. G. 2024. Disaster avoided: current state of the Baltic Sea without human intervention to reduce nutrient loads. Resubmitted to Limnology & Oceanography Letters 2024-09-13. This repository contains the following files: 1_Data_description.pdf Description of data sets and details on model forcing and data collection methods. Eutrophication_indicators1970-2021_BALTSEM_and_observations.xlsx Eutrophication indicators in the Baltic Sea: BALTSEM model simulation output from real load and no reduction scenarios as well as observations 1970-2021. BALTSEM_output_future_1970-2100.xlsx BALTSEM model simulation output 1970-2021 with observed nutrient loads (Real loads scenario) and statistics of 100 model runs 2022-2100 with present (2021) nutrient loads. The 100 runs represent statistical variations in forcing and boundary conditions to account for uncertainty in future weather and sea level conditions. NPloads_BS_M_C.xlsx Nitrogen and phosphorus loads from the Baltic Sea, Mississippi and Changjiang catchments 1950-2021 collected from several published sources. baltsem9.5_carbon.tar.gz Copressed folder with model code for BALTSEM 9.5 as well as forcing data used in the simulations. Information on folder contents and a user guide to run the model simuations can be found in the file BALTSEMGettingStartedCarbon.pdf随投稿手稿一同发布的数据集与模型代码： Ehrnsten, E.、Humborg C.、Gustafsson, E. 与 Gustafsson B. G.，2024年。《避免的灾害：若无人类干预削减养分负荷，波罗的海的当前状态》，2024年9月13日重新提交至《湖沼学与海洋学快报》（Limnology & Oceanography Letters）。 本仓库包含以下文件： 1. 1_Data_description.pdf：数据集说明文档，涵盖数据集详情、模型强迫方案与数据采集方法的相关说明。 2. Eutrophication_indicators1970-2021_BALTSEM_and_observations.xlsx：波罗的海富营养化指标数据集：包含1970-2021年BALTSEM模型在实际负荷与无养分减排情景下的模拟输出结果，以及同期观测数据。 3. BALTSEM_output_future_1970-2100.xlsx：BALTSEM模型1970-2100年模拟输出数据集：其中1970-2021年为采用实测养分负荷情景（实际负荷情景）的模拟结果；2022-2100年则为采用2021年当前养分负荷的100次模型运行结果的统计特征。该100次运行覆盖了强迫场与边界条件的统计变异，用以表征未来天气与海平面状况的不确定性。 4. NPloads_BS_M_C.xlsx：包含1950-2021年波罗的海、密西西比河与长江流域的氮、磷负荷数据，所有数据均来源于多篇已发表文献。 5. baltsem9.5_carbon.tar.gz：包含BALTSEM 9.5版本模型代码与模拟所用强迫场数据的压缩文件夹。关于文件夹内文件详情与运行模型模拟的用户指南，可参见文件BALTSEMGettingStartedCarbon.pdf。