Economic Model and Simulation Data for Molasses-Based Bioethanol and BDC Framework

This dataset supports the assessment of the economic viability of molasses-based bioethanol in Indonesia and the development of a Biofuel Decarbonisation Certificate (BDC) framework as a market-based policy instrument to accelerate bioethanol deployment. The research hypothesis is that bioethanol adoption is primarily constrained by the persistent price gap with subsidised gasoline, which reduces economic incentives for fuel blending and limits market competitiveness. This study proposes a BDC scheme that leverages the decarbonisation potential of sugarcane molasses while creating incentives across the bioethanol value chain. The framework aims to improve the economic feasibility of bioethanol blending by incorporating carbon value into the biofuel market and addressing existing policy and market barriers. The dataset contains input parameters, model calculations, and simulation outputs used to evaluate three main aspects: (1) the economic viability of molasses-based bioethanol production, (2) BDC pricing requirements and feasible blending pathways, and (3) potential greenhouse gas emission reductions in relation to Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets. The economic viability of the bioethanol pathway was assessed using net present value (NPV) analysis. The stochastic model incorporated Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to represent the uncertainty of bioethanol and molasses prices, with NPV distributions generated through Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that while the deterministic assessment suggests a positive NPV, incorporating market volatility significantly changes the economic performance. The stochastic model produces a negative mean NPV, highlighting the high financial risk associated with bioethanol deployment in Indonesia, with an average NPV of −USD 5.4 billion for the E5 blending scenario nationwide. The BDC framework translates the existing price gap between blended biofuels and subsidised gasoline into an equivalent carbon certificate value required to bridge the competitiveness gap. The estimated certificate prices are evaluated against the EU ETS benchmark price of USD 70/tCO₂e, where values below this threshold are considered indicative of economically feasible blending pathways. The result highlights the need for gasoline subsidy reform or alternative policy mechanisms to improve bioethanol market competitiveness. Under a gasoline price scenario of IDR 12,750/L, the analysis identifies E13 as the minimum blending level required to achieve certificate prices below the benchmark threshold. This dataset was compiled from publicly available sources, including Indonesian government reports and policy documents, academic literature, global energy statistics, and emissions reports. The accompanying workbook presents the complete modelling process, covering the research background, input parameters, calculation steps, and final outcomes.本数据集可为印度尼西亚糖蜜基生物乙醇的经济可行性评估，以及以市场化政策工具推动生物乙醇推广应用的生物燃料脱碳证书（Biofuel Decarbonisation Certificate, BDC）框架开发提供支撑。本研究提出的核心假设为：生物乙醇的推广应用主要受制于其与补贴汽油之间持续存在的价格差——该价差削弱了燃料掺混的经济激励，同时限制了市场竞争力。本研究提出了一套BDC机制，可充分挖掘甘蔗糖蜜的脱碳潜力，同时为生物乙醇全价值链各环节提供激励。该框架旨在通过将碳价值纳入生物燃料市场、破解现有政策与市场壁垒，提升生物乙醇掺混的经济可行性。 本数据集包含用于评估三大核心维度的输入参数、模型计算结果与模拟输出：（1）糖蜜基生物乙醇生产的经济可行性；（2）BDC定价要求与可行掺混路径；（3）契合印度尼西亚国家自主贡献（Nationally Determined Contribution, NDC）目标的潜在温室气体减排量。 本研究采用净现值（net present value, NPV）分析法评估生物乙醇路径的经济可行性。随机模型引入几何布朗运动（Geometric Brownian Motion, GBM）以表征生物乙醇与糖蜜价格的不确定性，并通过蒙特卡洛模拟生成净现值分布。结果显示，尽管确定性评估得出净现值为正的结论，但纳入市场波动性后，经济表现将发生显著变化。随机模型得到的平均净现值为负值，凸显了印度尼西亚生物乙醇推广应用面临的高金融风险：全国范围内E5掺混场景下的平均净现值为-54亿美元。 BDC框架将掺混生物燃料与补贴汽油之间的现有价格差，转化为弥合竞争力差距所需的等效碳证书价值。本研究将估算的证书价格与欧盟碳排放交易体系（EU Emissions Trading System, EU ETS）70美元/吨二氧化碳当量的基准价格进行对比，低于该阈值的价格可视为经济上可行的掺混路径。研究结果表明，为提升生物乙醇的市场竞争力，需推进汽油补贴改革或采用替代性政策机制。在汽油价格为12750印尼盾（IDR）/升的场景下，分析识别出E13为使证书价格低于基准阈值所需的最低掺混比例。 本数据集汇编自公开数据源，包括印度尼西亚政府报告与政策文件、学术文献、全球能源统计数据及排放报告。配套工作簿完整呈现了建模流程，涵盖研究背景、输入参数、计算步骤与最终结果。