Productive and Economic Viability of Raising Beef Cattle in the Savanna of the Brazilian State of Goiás

Abstract: The present study evaluates the economic viability of four different models of beef cattle production in the rio Vermelho hydrographic basin. The study focuses on the traditional extensive ranching system, which was compared to three intensive systems, one based on low levels of concentrated supplementation, a second with low levels of concentrated supplementation and confinement for fattening and an intensive grazing system, with supplementation during the dry and rainy seasons. The investments were estimated for the different levels of technical specifications of each system. The net present values and internal return rate were used for the assessment of the economic viability of the project, considering the minimum rate of attractiveness, equivalent to the inflation-adjusted savings interest rate (6.17%). The continuity of the sector was evaluated based on the gross and net margins, and profitability rates, where the system is already installed. All four systems had gross and net margins and profitability consistent with their economic sustainability over both the short and long terms. However, only two systems (reduced consumption of concentrated supplements and the intensive grazing system) were economically viable as start-ups.摘要：本研究评估了里约韦尔梅柳水文盆地（Rio Vermelho hydrographic basin）四种不同肉牛生产模式的经济可行性。研究以传统粗放型牧场养殖系统为参照，将其与三种集约化养殖系统开展对比：其一为低浓度浓缩饲料补饲模式，其二为低浓度浓缩饲料补饲结合育肥圈养模式，其三为旱季与雨季均实施补饲的集约化放牧系统。针对各系统不同技术规格水平进行了投资估算。本研究采用净现值（net present value）与内部收益率（internal return rate）对项目经济可行性进行评估，设定最低吸引力收益率等同于经通胀调整后的储蓄利率（6.17%）。针对已建成投产的养殖系统，基于总边际利润、净边际利润及利润率对该产业的可持续存续性进行评估。四种养殖系统的总边际利润、净边际利润及利润率均符合其短期与长期经济可持续性要求。然而，仅两种系统——浓缩饲料补饲消耗量降低模式与集约化放牧系统——作为新建项目具备经济可行性。