Difference of means test-independents.

As partisanship strengthens in the United States, unaffiliated voter registration is also increasing. We conducted an original survey experiment to understand voter registration choices among registered voters in Florida and North Carolina, two states with substantial shares of unaffiliated registrants and persistent partisan polarization, but with differing primary participation rules. Institutionally, Florida holds closed primaries where only those registered with a political party may participate in the respective primary for that party. North Carolina holds semi-closed primaries that allow those not registered with a political party (i.e., unaffiliated registrants) to vote in party primary elections. The results of our experiment demonstrate that institutional context matters. Specifically, informing respondents of primary participation rules shapes voter registration recommendations. Among registrants who identify as independents, exposure to Florida’s closed primary rule causes them to be more likely to recommend party registration, whereas awareness of the semi-closed North Carolina primary rule makes independents and partisans more likely to advise unaffiliated registration. However, in the absence of information explaining rules for primary participation, respondents are more likely to suggest that their friend register in alignment with their own political identity. In summary, our study provides valuable insights into how registration choices are conditioned by political identities and exposure to treatments that emphasize political conditions and primary participation rules.随着美国政党极化程度不断加深，无党派选民登记人数也持续增长。本研究针对佛罗里达州与北卡罗来纳州的登记选民开展原创性调查实验，以探究其选民登记选择的决策逻辑。两州均拥有可观比例的无党派登记选民，且长期面临政党极化问题，但二者的初选参与规则存在显著差异。从制度层面而言，佛罗里达州实行封闭式初选（closed primary）：仅登记加入某一政党的选民，方可参与该政党的对应初选投票；北卡罗来纳州则实行半封闭式初选（semi-closed primary），允许未登记加入任何政党的选民（即无党派登记选民）参与各政党的初选投票。本实验结果表明，制度环境对选民决策至关重要。具体而言，向受访者告知初选参与规则，会显著影响其给出的选民登记建议：在自称无党派独立选民的受访者中，接触佛罗里达州封闭式初选规则后，他们更倾向于建议他人登记加入政党；而知晓北卡罗来纳州半封闭式初选规则的独立选民与党派选民，则更倾向于建议他人进行无党派登记。但在未获得初选参与规则说明的情况下，受访者更倾向于建议好友按照自身政治身份进行登记。综上，本研究为理解选民登记选择如何受自身政治身份，以及接触强调政治环境与初选参与规则的信息干预所制约，提供了极具价值的学术洞见。