Green bargains: leveraging public investment to advance climate regulation

Climate policy has entered a new era as public investment is increasingly moving to center stage, including recovery spending and long-term climate investment plans. While essential for decarbonization, public investment is not enough – the carrots of investment need to go hand in hand with regulatory sticks. Public investment in clean technologies and infrastructure does not guarantee decarbonization outcomes. Yet, climate regulation, particularly high and comprehensive carbon prices, has remained elusive in the United States and many other parts of the world. Against this backdrop, the big public investment push offers a political opportunity of government leverage. Governments can tie climate requirements to public investment as part of a 'green bargain.’ At the core of these arrangements is reciprocity – linking carrots to sticks – to ensure public investment leads to technological change and emission reductions. Drawing on the experience with ‘reciprocal control mechanisms’ in public investment among late industrializers, this paper advances our understanding of green bargains. It examines the historical precedents of green bargains, introduces a typology, and offers an empirical overview based on an original dataset of implemented and proposed green bargains. We then focus on the design choices related to leverage, scope, and accountability to make green bargains effective at technological learning and advancing decarbonization. The article concludes with a discussion of US and international policy fora that can serve as platforms to develop green bargains as public climate investments expand. Key policy insights Scaling public investment for decarbonization is essential but not sufficient. Climate regulation needs to complement investment to ensure decarbonization outcomes. Yet governments, in particular the US, are falling short of needed climate regulation. Public investment offers leverage to tie climate requirements to government spending on clean technology and infrastructure. Linking carrots to sticks represents a ‘green bargain’ between governments and firms and industries, with reciprocity at its core. This resembles the ‘reciprocal control mechanisms’ of late industrializers. To make green bargains effective, their design needs to facilitate broad scope, high government leverage, and high accountability. Scaling public investment for decarbonization is essential but not sufficient. Climate regulation needs to complement investment to ensure decarbonization outcomes. Yet governments, in particular the US, are falling short of needed climate regulation. Public investment offers leverage to tie climate requirements to government spending on clean technology and infrastructure. Linking carrots to sticks represents a ‘green bargain’ between governments and firms and industries, with reciprocity at its core. This resembles the ‘reciprocal control mechanisms’ of late industrializers. To make green bargains effective, their design needs to facilitate broad scope, high government leverage, and high accountability.气候政策已迈入全新阶段，公共投资愈发成为核心议题，其中既包含疫后复苏支出，也涵盖长期气候投资规划。尽管公共投资对脱碳至关重要，但仅靠此类投入仍远远不足——投资激励（carrots）必须与规制约束（sticks）相辅相成。对清洁技术与基础设施的公共投资，并不必然能达成脱碳目标。然而，气候规制——尤其是高水平且覆盖全面的碳定价机制——在美国及全球诸多地区始终难以落地。 在此背景下，大规模公共投资浪潮为政府发挥政策杠杆作用提供了政治契机。各国政府可将气候要求与公共投资绑定，以此构建绿色契约（green bargain）。此类安排的核心在于互惠原则——即激励与约束并举——以确保公共投资能够推动技术变革与减排目标的实现。本文借鉴后发工业化经济体在公共投资领域运用互惠管控机制（reciprocal control mechanisms）的实践经验，深化了学界对绿色契约的认知。研究梳理了绿色契约的历史先例，提出了类型学框架，并基于涵盖已落地与拟议绿色契约的原创数据集，开展了实证综述。随后，本文聚焦于杠杆作用、覆盖范围与问责机制等层面的设计选择，旨在让绿色契约能够有效推动技术学习与脱碳进程。文末，本文探讨了可作为绿色契约发展平台的美国国内及国际政策论坛，以供公共气候投资规模持续扩大之际参考。 核心政策洞察 扩大公共投资规模以推进脱碳至关重要，但绝非充分条件。气候规制必须与投资举措形成互补，方能确保脱碳目标落地。然而当前各国政府——尤其是美国——尚未出台符合需求的气候规制政策。 公共投资可作为政策杠杆，将气候要求与政府在清洁技术及基础设施领域的支出绑定。 将激励与约束并举的模式，构成了政府与企业、产业之间的绿色契约，其核心为互惠原则。这与后发工业化经济体所采用的互惠管控机制有异曲同工之妙。 若要让绿色契约发挥实效，其设计需兼顾覆盖范围广泛、政府杠杆作用强劲以及问责机制健全三大要点。 扩大公共投资规模以推进脱碳至关重要，但绝非充分条件。气候规制必须与投资举措形成互补，方能确保脱碳目标落地。然而当前各国政府——尤其是美国——尚未出台符合需求的气候规制政策。 公共投资可作为政策杠杆，将气候要求与政府在清洁技术及基础设施领域的支出绑定。 将激励与约束并举的模式，构成了政府与企业、产业之间的绿色契约，其核心为互惠原则。这与后发工业化经济体所采用的互惠管控机制有异曲同工之妙。 若要让绿色契约发挥实效，其设计需兼顾覆盖范围广泛、政府杠杆作用强劲以及问责机制健全三大要点。