Pairwise correlation matrix.

The question of whether productive capacities and institutional quality facilitate or impede progress towards sustainable development is a significant issue that has not been extensively explored in prior literature. Despite their importance, these variables are often overlooked in the literature on sustainable development, yet they play a crucial role in enabling efforts to achieve sustainable development. In this study, we examined how productive capacities affect sustainable development, with a moderating impact of institutional quality. The sample was comprised of 44 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) economies, covering the period from 2000 to 2018. Using a two-step system GMM, we found that the relation between productive capacities and sustainable development is dynamic, positive, and significant. Additionally, institutional quality played a moderating role in achieving sustainable development, especially among regionally connected countries. Our findings suggest that sustainable development is strongly linked to a country’s productive capacities. Therefore, improving productive capacities and institutional quality may lead to long-term development and sustainability. These results are valuable to academia as they provide new thought regarding the influence of productive capacities and institutional quality on sustainable development, and policymakers may benefit from the suggestions presented regarding productive capacities and institutional quality.生产能力与制度质量究竟是助力还是阻碍可持续发展进程，这一重要议题在既往研究中尚未得到充分探讨。尽管二者具备重要意义，但在可持续发展相关研究中，这类变量常被忽视，然而它们在推动可持续发展目标落地的过程中发挥着关键作用。本研究聚焦于生产能力对可持续发展的影响，并探讨制度质量的调节作用。本研究的样本涵盖2000年至2018年间的44个一带一路（Belt and Road Initiative, BRI）经济体。本研究采用两步系统广义矩估计（two-step system GMM）方法，结果表明生产能力与可持续发展之间的关系呈现动态、正向且显著的特征。此外，制度质量对可持续发展的实现存在显著调节效应，尤其在区域互联互通经济体中更为突出。研究结果显示，一国可持续发展水平与其生产能力紧密相关。因此，提升生产能力与制度质量，或可推动一国实现长期发展与可持续性目标。本研究结论为学术界提供了关于生产能力与制度质量影响可持续发展的全新视角，具备重要的学术价值；同时，相关建议也可为政策制定者提供有益参考。