Ocean Productivity May Predict Recruitment of the Rainbow Wrasse (Coris julis)

Predicting recruitment fluctuations of fish populations remains the Holy Grail of fisheries science. While previous work has linked recruitment of reef fish to environmental variables including temperature, the demonstration of a robust relationship with productivity remains elusive. Despite decades of research, empirical evidence to support this critical link remains limited. Here we identify a consistent and strong relationship between recruitment of a temperate wrasse Coris julis, from temperate reefs in the mid-Atlantic region, with Chlorophyll, over contrasting scales, across multiple years. Additionally, we find that the correlation between Chlorophyll and recruitment is not simply masking a temperature-recruitment relationship. Understanding the potential mechanisms underlying recruitment variability, particularly as it relates to changing climate and ocean regimes, is a critical first step towards characterizing species’ vulnerability to mismatches between pulsed planktonic production and early pelagic life stages.预测鱼类种群补充量的波动，始终是渔业科学领域梦寐以求的圣杯级核心难题。尽管既往研究已将礁栖鱼类的种群补充量与温度等环境变量建立关联，但探明其与生产力间的稳健关联仍颇具挑战。即便历经数十年研究，支撑这一关键关联的实证证据仍十分有限。本研究针对大西洋中部温带海域的温带隆头鱼科瑞氏盔鱼（Coris julis），揭示了其种群补充量与叶绿素（Chlorophyll）之间存在稳定且显著的关联，该关联覆盖不同时空尺度且跨多年度持续存在。此外，本研究证实，叶绿素与种群补充量的相关性并非单纯掩盖了温度与种群补充量之间的关联。阐明种群补充量波动的潜在驱动机制，尤其是其与气候变化及海洋状态变迁的关联，是刻画物种应对浮游生物脉冲产出与早期远洋生活阶段错配风险脆弱性的关键第一步。