NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Caribbean 500 Year Shipwreck Frequency and Tree Growth Suppression Data

Assessing the impact of future climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of crucial societal importance, but the limited quantity and quality of observational records interferes with the skill of future TC projections. In particular, North Atlantic TC response to radiative forcing is poorly understood and creates the dominant source of uncertainty for twenty-first-century projections. Here, we study TC variability in the Caribbean during the Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645-1715 CE), a period defined by the most severe reduction in solar irradiance in documented history (1610–present). For this purpose, we combine a documentary time series of Spanish shipwrecks in the Caribbean (1495-1825 CE) with a tree-growth suppression chronology from the Florida Keys (1707-2009 CE). We find a 75% reduction in decadal-scale Caribbean TC activity during the MM, which suggests modulation of the influence of reduced solar irradiance by the cumulative effect of cool North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, El Niño-like conditions, and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our results emphasize the need to enhance our understanding of the response of these oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns to radiative forcing and climate change to improve the skill of future TC projections.

评估未来气候变化对北大西洋热带气旋（tropical cyclone, TC）活动的影响具有至关重要的社会意义，但现有观测记录的数量与质量均存在局限，制约了未来热带气旋预测的精度。尤为突出的是，学界对北大西洋热带气旋响应辐射强迫的机制尚缺乏充分认知，这也成为二十一世纪热带气旋预测不确定性的主要来源。

本研究聚焦于蒙德极小期（Maunder Minimum, MM；公元1645-1715年）加勒比海区域的热带气旋变率——该时期是有史料记载以来（公元1610年至今）太阳辐照度下降幅度最剧烈的时段。为此，我们融合了两类数据：一是公元1495-1825年加勒比海海域西班牙沉船事件的文献时间序列，二是公元1707-2009年佛罗里达礁岛群的树木生长抑制年表。

研究结果显示，蒙德极小期内加勒比海区域年代际尺度的热带气旋活动减少了75%，这表明北大西洋海表温度偏低、类厄尔尼诺状态以及北大西洋涛动负相位的累积效应，会对太阳辐照度降低的影响起到调制作用。本研究强调，为提升未来热带气旋预测的精度，亟需加深对上述海洋与大气环流模式响应辐射强迫与气候变化的机制的理解。