Data and code on the effects of quarantine and social distancing on the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries.

This fileset contains two datasets <b>Book1_regression.xlsx</b> and <b>Book2.xlsx</b>, in .xlsx file format, and the code file, <b>Corona_research.mw</b>, in .mw file format, used to generate the datasets.<br><br>The datasets and code support the findings in the following preprint, which is under consideration at BMC Infectious Diseases of Poverty: Atiqur Chowdhury, K M Ariful Kabir, Jun Tanimoto. How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries: a mathematical and statistical analysis. <i>Research Square </i>https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-20294/v1 (2020).<br><br> Dataset <b>Book1_regression.xlsx</b>: The first column of this spreadsheet consists of the actual data for the total number of COVID-19 infected people in Bangladesh until March 28^th, 2020. Data reported in the first column were collected from www.iedcr.gov.bd from March 7^th, 2020 to March 28^th, 2020. The second column of this spreadsheet reports simulated data on the number of COVID-19 infected people, using a novel theoretical model named “Social distancing SEIQR model”. The code used to generate these data is contained in the code file <b>Corona_research.mw.</b> <b> </b> Dataset <b>Book2.xlsx: </b>This dataset contains data derived using the social distancing SEIQR mathematical model. Data are reported for COVID-19 cases under the following conditions: no lockdown, one week lockdown, two weeks lockdown and three weeks lockdown. Additionally, data are reported for COVID-19 cases under the following conditions: 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% of people respectively, are following the social distancing rules. The last part of the spreadsheet contains data for COVID-19 cases under the following conditions: 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% 50% and 60% of people respectively, are in home quarantine. The code used to generate these data is contained in the code file Corona_research.mw. <b>Study aims and methodology: </b>The novel coronavirus, named as SARS-CoV-2, is a transmissible viral disease that has rapidly spread around the world and is currently a major threat for developing and under poverty level countries according to World Bank's and WHO's prediction. At the moment, there is no vaccine or effective treatment to prevent the spread of the virus. However, the policies “self-isolation”, “quarantine”, “lock-down” and “social distancing”, that have been introduced in many countries around the world, aim to control the severity of the outbreak. This paper introduces a novel theoretical model named Social distancing SEIQR model, to control the spread of infection by combining both quarantine and social distancing explicitly based on the real cases observed, in countries where medical equipment and other resources are limited. The SEIQR social distancing model is based on six assumptions or facts. The basic reproduction number R0, was used to assess the transmissibility of COVID-19. For more details on the methodology and statistical analysis, please read the related article.本数据集集合包含两个.xlsx格式数据集**Book1_regression.xlsx**与**Book2.xlsx**，以及用于生成该数据集的代码文件**Corona_research.mw**（.mw格式）。<br><br>本数据集与代码可支撑下述预印本的研究结论，该预印本目前正在《BMC Infectious Diseases of Poverty》（《贫困相关传染病》）期刊审稿中：Atiqur Chowdhury、K M Ariful Kabir、Jun Tanimoto所著《How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries: a mathematical and statistical analysis》，发表于Research Square（研究广场）预印本平台，DOI: 10.21200/rs.3.rs-20294/v1（2020年）。<br><br>数据集**Book1_regression.xlsx**：该电子表格第一列为截至2020年3月28日孟加拉国新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）确诊总人数的真实统计数据，数据采集时段为2020年3月7日至2020年3月28日，来源为www.iedcr.gov.bd。第二列为基于新型理论模型**社交距离SEIQR模型（Social distancing SEIQR model）**生成的新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊人数模拟数据，生成该模拟数据的代码存储于代码文件**Corona_research.mw**中。<br><br>数据集**Book2.xlsx**：该数据集包含基于社交距离SEIQR数学模型推导得到的数据，涵盖以下场景下的新型冠状病毒肺炎病例数据：无封控、1周封控、2周封控及3周封控；另有分别有50%、40%、30%、20%、10%民众遵守社交距离规则场景下的病例数据。该电子表格最后一部分则包含分别有10%、20%、30%、40%、50%、60%民众接受居家隔离场景下的新型冠状病毒肺炎病例数据。生成该数据集的代码存储于代码文件**Corona_research.mw**中。<br><br>**研究目标与方法**：新型冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）是一种可人际传播的病毒性疾病，已在全球快速扩散，据世界银行与世界卫生组织预测，其目前对发展中国家及贫困国家构成重大威胁。当前尚无可用疫苗或有效治疗手段遏制病毒传播。全球多国已推行“自我隔离”“隔离检疫”“封控”及“社交距离”等政策，旨在控制疫情暴发规模。本文基于医疗设备与其他资源有限国家的实际观测病例，提出一种新型理论模型——社交距离SEIQR模型，通过同时结合隔离检疫与社交距离措施来控制病毒传播。该SEIQR社交距离模型基于六项假设或事实展开构建。研究采用基本再生数（basic reproduction number, R₀）评估新型冠状病毒肺炎的传播能力。如需了解方法学与统计分析的更多细节，请参阅相关研究论文。