TV debates in EP election campaigns – the influence of the 2019 Eurovision debate on voting behaviour

Televised debates represent an integral part of election campaigns and with the introduction of the Spitzenkandidaten process also became part of the European Parliament (EP) elections campaign. Various characteristics of EP elections such as a generally lower (perceived) relevance of and participation in the elections, and also the relatively unknown lead candidates running for Commission President assign TV debates a crucial role to inform European citizens and assist them in their voting decision. Focusing on the second edition of the ‘Eurovision debate’ during the 2019 EP elections campaign, this article examines the impact of debate exposure on both the decision to turn out and party choice. The study uses original flash survey data collected after the debate in five countries (DE, DK, ES, HU, NL). These data are part of a larger panel-survey study, which allows to examine immediate effects in the days after the debate and also for the eventual decision on Election Day. Although citizens' debate exposure varies considerably across countries, and watchers further differ in their evaluations of the candidate performances, the results show a surprisingly negative effect of debate exposure on turnout, especially among more interested citizens, and basically no effects on party choice.

电视辩论是选举竞选活动不可或缺的组成部分。随着顶级候选人（Spitzenkandidaten）机制的引入，电视辩论也成为欧洲议会（EP）选举竞选的一部分。欧洲议会选举存在诸多固有特性：选民对选举的（感知）关注度与参与度普遍偏低，且角逐欧盟委员会主席职位的领衔候选人大多知名度有限，这便赋予电视辩论至关重要的作用——为欧洲民众传递选举信息，助力其做出投票抉择。本文以2019年欧洲议会选举竞选期间的第二届“欧洲电视网辩论（Eurovision debate）”为研究对象，考察了收看辩论对选民参与投票的决策以及党派选择两方面的影响。本研究使用了辩论结束后在德国（DE）、丹麦（DK）、西班牙（ES）、匈牙利（HU）、荷兰（NL）五个国家收集的原创快速调查数据。这些数据隶属于一项更大规模的面板追踪调查研究，既可以分析辩论结束后数日内的即时影响，也能探究选民在选举当日的最终投票决策。尽管不同国家的民众收看辩论的比例存在显著差异，且辩论观众对候选人表现的评价也各不相同，但研究结果却出人意料地显示，收看辩论对选民参与投票存在负面影响，这一效应在关注度更高的选民群体中尤为明显，而收看辩论对党派选择则基本无影响。