Diversity and tectonics: predictions from neutral theory

Numerical simulations of neutral metacommunities are used here to predict the effects of growth and shrinkage of metacommunities, as well as their separation and merging caused by continental collision and rifting and their secondary eustatic effects. Although growth and shrinkage of metacommunities predictably change diversity, separating and merging metacommunities have counterintuitive effects. Separating and merging metacommunities changes diversity within the individual areas, especially so for smaller areas, but they cause no change in total diversity of the system, contrary to previous predictions. The response times of metacommunities are likely to be geologically undetectable except for enormously large systems. These models can be used to predict the plate-tectonic effects on the diversity of terrestrial, coastal-marine, deep-marine, and oceanic island systems. Of these, global and regional coastal-marine systems are the most acutely sensitive to the changes in area and fragme...

本研究采用中性元群落（neutral metacommunities）数值模拟方法，旨在预测元群落的扩张与收缩过程，以及由大陆碰撞、裂谷作用引发的元群落分离与合并事件，及其伴随的次生海平面变化效应。尽管元群落的扩张与收缩可按预期改变群落多样性，但元群落的分离与合并却呈现出反直觉的影响。元群落的分离与合并会改变单个生境斑块内的多样性水平，对于小型斑块而言这一效应尤为突出，但并不会改变整个系统的总多样性，这与此前的相关预测相悖。元群落的响应时间在地质尺度上几乎无法被探测，除非是规模极其庞大的生态系统。上述模型可用于预测板块构造作用对陆地、近岸海洋、深海海洋以及大洋岛屿生态系统多样性的影响。其中，全球及区域性近岸海洋系统对面积变化与生境破碎化的响应最为敏感。