Influence of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the imports of Passenger Vehicles to Germany

This dataset accompanies the study “Influence of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on the Imports of Passenger Vehicles to Germany”, which analyzes the political and economic implications of the EU’s CBAM within the framework of the “Fit for 55” package. The research applies a gravity model to investigate how bilateral trade flows respond to CO₂ pricing, technological efficiency, and institutional governance factors between 2008 and 2024. The empirical results show that CBAM exerts a mild but statistically significant trade-restrictive effect, which intensifies with the CO₂ intensity of exporting countries. This effect is stronger for non-EU nations and weaker in large, densely populated markets that benefit from economies of scale.

The dataset combines information from several authoritative sources:

Car import data from the German Federal Ministry of Transport (annual bilateral import volumes, 2008–2024);

Macroeconomic indicators (GDP per capita, total population, exchange rate, political stability) from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators;

Inflation rates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF);

CO₂ intensity data from the European Commission’s EDGAR database;

Technological efficiency measures from the Global Innovation Index (WIPO), used to construct a custom CBAM impact indicator that accounts for differences in carbon pricing, production efficiency, and embedded emissions;

Additional constructed variables include a dummy for EU membership, bilateral geographic distance (CEPII GeoDist dataset), and derived indicators such as population density ratios (BevRho_ij) and relative inflation and governance differences between trading partners.

All datasets were harmonized by country and year, cleaned for consistency, and merged into a balanced panel structure covering 47 partner countries across 17 years. Variables were log-transformed or z-standardized where appropriate to reduce heteroskedasticity and ensure comparability.

The dataset is provided in Excel (.xlsx) format, consisting of multiple sheets, each representing one of the key variables used in the regression analysis (e.g., GDP, imports, CO₂ intensity, distance, EU membership, etc.).
Each sheet contains country–year data in a wide structure, which can be easily converted into a long (panel) format for econometric replication in software such as Python, Stata, or R.

本数据集配套于研究《碳边境调节机制（Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, CBAM）对德国乘用车进口的影响》，该研究在“Fit for 55”政策一揽子框架下分析欧盟碳边境调节机制的政治与经济影响。本研究应用引力模型，探究2008至2024年间双边贸易流量如何响应二氧化碳定价、技术效率与制度治理等因素的变动。实证结果表明，CBAM会产生温和但具备统计显著性的贸易限制效应，且该效应随出口国二氧化碳排放强度的提升而加剧。此效应在非欧盟国家中更为突出，而在依托规模经济优势的大型高密度人口市场中则相对减弱。

本数据集整合了多类权威来源的信息：
1. 德国联邦交通部的乘用车进口数据（2008-2024年年度双边进口量）；
2. 世界银行世界发展指标中的宏观经济指标（人均GDP、总人口、汇率、政治稳定性）；
3. 国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund, IMF）发布的通货膨胀率数据；
4. 欧盟委员会EDGAR数据库的二氧化碳排放强度数据；
5. 全球创新指数（世界知识产权组织, World Intellectual Property Organization, WIPO）提供的技术效率衡量指标，用于构建定制化CBAM影响指标，该指标纳入了碳定价、生产效率与隐含排放的差异；
此外还构建了若干额外变量：包括欧盟成员国身份虚拟变量、双边地理距离（源自CEPII GeoDist数据集），以及衍生指标如贸易伙伴间的人口密度比值（BevRho_ij）、相对通货膨胀率与治理差异指数。

所有数据集均按国家与年份进行统一协调，经过一致性清洗后整合为平衡面板结构，覆盖17年间的47个伙伴国。根据研究需要，部分变量进行了对数变换或Z标准化处理，以降低异方差性并提升数据可比性。

本数据集以Excel（.xlsx）格式提供，包含多个工作表，每个工作表对应回归分析中使用的一项核心变量（如GDP、进口量、二氧化碳排放强度、地理距离、欧盟成员国身份等）。每个工作表采用宽格式存储国家-年份数据，可便捷转换为长格式（面板格式），以用于Python、Stata或R等软件开展计量经济学复刻研究。