Simulation.

The cap-and-trade mechanism affects firms’ production and operation decisions and carbon emissions, making them move towards environmental sustainability. This article develops a contingent claims model to examine the impact of the regulatory cap-and-trade mechanism on the green finance strategy of an insurer during a war. Participating in the cap-and-trade scheme of the insurer that funds the borrowing firms also implicitly affects firm production and carbon emissions. The results show that increasing the green loans decreases the interest margin of the insurer but helps policyholder protection. The insurer is reluctant to provide green loans for the green borrowing firm and thus retards sustainable development. A stringent regulatory cap of the cap-and-trade mechanism raises the insurer’s interest margin but hurts policyholder protection. From the perspective of the insurer’s profit, regulatory cap efficiently derives insurer lending toward sustainability through borrowing-firm cleaner production. An increased war impacting the polluting borrowing firm increases the insurer’s interest margin but harms policyholder protection, affecting insurance stability adversely. This research enriches related literature and knowledge concerning insurer green finance practices indirectly associated with cleaner production. The research also highlights the significance of the regulatory cap-and-trade mechanism that reflects cleaner production in affecting insurer performance during a war.总量管制与交易（cap-and-trade）机制会对企业的生产经营决策与碳排放产生影响，推动其迈向环境可持续发展路径。本文构建未定权益模型（contingent claims model），探究战争背景下该监管型总量管制与交易机制对保险公司（insurer）绿色金融（green finance）战略的作用效果。为借款企业（borrowing firm）提供资金的保险公司，若参与总量管制与交易计划，亦会间接影响借款企业的生产活动与碳排放水平。 研究结果显示，扩大绿色信贷规模虽会压缩保险公司的利差（interest margin），但有助于保障保单持有人（policyholder）的权益。保险公司往往不愿向绿色借款企业发放绿色信贷，进而延缓可持续发展进程。总量管制与交易机制下严格的监管上限，虽可提升保险公司的利差，但会损害保单持有人的权益保护。从保险公司的利润视角出发，监管型总量管制与交易机制可通过推动借款企业开展清洁生产，有效引导保险公司的信贷业务向可持续方向倾斜。 当战事升级并波及污染型借款企业时，保险公司的利差会扩大，但会损害保单持有人的权益保护，对保险市场的稳定性造成不利影响。 本研究丰富了与清洁生产间接相关的保险公司绿色金融实践领域的学术文献与认知，同时凸显了在战争背景下，体现清洁生产导向的监管型总量管制与交易机制对保险公司经营绩效的重要意义。