Replication Data for: State Capacity, Refugee Reception, and Attitudes towards Refugees

What explains opposition to refugees? Aside from cultural, economic, and safety-related threats, existing research suggests that individuals are less tolerant when they think their state lacks the capacity to control external borders. Focusing solely on external borders, however, overlooks another dimension of migration management: reception and integration. I argue that perceptions of a state's refugee reception capacity shape refugee-related attitudes. Three studies – focusing on Ukrainian refugees in Central and Eastern Europe – provide evidence. Study 1 analyzes opposition to Ukrainian refugees and the reception programs intended to benefit them. Study 2, a design-based analysis, shows that expanding a state's capacity to manage refugee reception causes individuals to consider refugees less of a problem. Study 3, a pre-registered survey experiment, replicates this finding and investigates whether effects extend beyond problem perception. Findings suggest that investing in effective refugee reception may improve the lives of refugees while also reducing public opposition.

为何民众会反对接纳难民？现有研究表明，除了文化、经济与安全层面的威胁感知外，当民众认为本国缺乏管控外部边境的能力时，其对难民的包容度会更低。然而仅聚焦外部边境管控，会忽略移民治理的另一维度：难民接纳与融合。本文提出，民众对本国难民接纳能力的认知，会影响其对待难民的态度。三项以中东欧地区乌克兰难民为研究对象的实证研究为此提供了支撑。研究1分析了民众对乌克兰难民的反对态度，以及旨在惠及难民的接纳相关政策。研究2采用基于研究设计的分析方法，结果显示，提升本国难民接纳管理能力，会让民众更少将难民视为问题群体。研究3为一项预先注册的调查实验，不仅重复验证了上述发现，还探讨了该效应是否不止局限于对问题感知的影响。研究结果表明，加大对高效难民接纳体系的投入，既可以改善难民的生活处境，也能降低公众的反对情绪。