Case data with referenced sources for cities within China from Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates

Since it was first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. Using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95% CI, 2.39–4.13), indicating that 58–76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing. We also estimate a case ascertainment rate in Wuhan of 5.0% (95% CI, 3.6–7.4). The true size of the epidemic may be significantly greater than the published case counts suggest, with our model estimating 21 022 (prediction interval, 11 090–33 490) total infections in Wuhan between 1 and 22 January. We discuss our findings in the light of more recent information.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

自首次被发现以来，在中国武汉首次出现的新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）疫情规模迅速扩大，病例波及中国境内及其他多个国家和地区。本研究通过传播模型估算得到基本再生数为3.11（95%置信区间：2.39~4.13），这意味着需阻断58%~76%的传播链条，方可遏制疫情扩散态势。同时，我们估算得出武汉地区的病例确诊率为5.0%（95%置信区间：3.6~7.4）。本次疫情的实际规模或显著高于已公布的病例数所反映的情况：模型估算结果显示，在1月1日至22日期间，武汉地区的总感染人数约为21022例（预测区间：11090~33490例）。我们结合近期更新的相关信息，对本研究的发现进行了讨论。本文隶属于专题专栏"塑造英国早期新冠疫情大流行防控应对的建模研究"。