Growth of local industrial employment in Brazil: does the degree of specialization by technological intensity matter?

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to revisit the debate on the degree of specialization and industrial diversification and the growth of local manufacturing employment in Brazil. A matrix of sectoral spillovers is built in which it is verified whether sectors, grouped by technological intensity, influence the performance of disaggregated manufacturing groups. Spatial data panel techniques are used to control non-observed local effects and possible spatial dependence over the period 1995-2014. The results show that specializations in low-technology manufacturing groups create stimulus for several other manufacturing groups regardless of the level of technological intensity. The spillovers coming from high technology manufacturing industries are less frequent, though they also occur depending on the industrial manufacturing group considered. In general, sectors of higher and lower technological intensity flourish with the presence of MAR externalities. We conclude that the diversification/specialization debate can vary considerably, requiring specific industrial and regional policies by manufacturing industries.摘要 本研究旨在重新探讨巴西地方制造业就业增长与产业专业化程度、产业多元化之间的争论。本研究构建了部门溢出效应矩阵，用以验证按技术强度分组的各部门是否会对细分制造业组别产生影响。研究采用空间面板数据模型，对1995-2014年间的未观测本地效应与潜在空间相关性进行控制。结果显示，低技术制造业组别的专业化会对多个其他制造业组别产生拉动效应，且不受对方技术强度水平的影响。来自高技术制造业的溢出效应则相对少见，但同样会依据所考察的制造业组别而存在。总体而言，无论技术强度高低，制造业部门在MAR外部性（MAR Externalities）存在的情况下均能实现蓬勃发展。本研究最终得出结论：专业化与多元化的争论存在显著差异，制造业需要针对性的产业政策与区域政策。