Swedish rape offenders — a latent class analysis

Sweden has witnessed an increase in the rates of sexual crimes including rape. Knowledge of who the offenders of these crimes are is therefore of importance for prevention. We aimed to study characteristics of individuals convicted of rape, aggravated rape, attempted rape or attempted aggravated rape (abbreviated rape+), against a woman ≥18 years of age, in Sweden. By using information from the Swedish Crime Register, offenders between 15 and 60 years old convicted of rape+ between 2000 and 2015 were included. Information on substance use disorders, previous criminality and psychiatric disorders were retrieved from Swedish population-based registers, and Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was used to identify classes of rape+ offenders. A total of 3 039 offenders were included in the analysis. A majority of them were immigrants (n = 1 800; 59.2%) of which a majority (n = 1 451; 47.7%) were born outside of Sweden. The LCA identified two classes: Class A — low offending class (LOC), and Class B — high offending class (HOC). While offenders in the LOC had low rates of previous criminality, psychiatric disorders and substance use disorders, those included in the HOC had high rates of previous criminality, psychiatric disorders and substance use disorders. While HOC may be composed by more “traditional” criminals probably known by the police, the LOC may represent individuals not previously known by the police. These two separated classes, as well as our finding in regard to a majority of the offenders being immigrants, warrants further studies that take into account the contextual characteristics among these offenders. Key points Rape, aggravated rape, attempted rape or attempted aggravated rape (rape+) are increasing in Sweden. The majority of those convicted of rape+ are immigrants. LCA identifies two classes of rape+ offenders: LOC and HOC. Rape, aggravated rape, attempted rape or attempted aggravated rape (rape+) are increasing in Sweden. The majority of those convicted of rape+ are immigrants. LCA identifies two classes of rape+ offenders: LOC and HOC.瑞典境内包括强奸在内的性犯罪率呈上升趋势。因此，明确此类犯罪作案者的身份特征，对于犯罪预防工作具有重要意义。本研究旨在针对瑞典境内针对年满18周岁女性实施强奸、加重型强奸、强奸未遂或加重型强奸未遂（缩写为rape+，以下简称强奸+）的定罪个体特征展开研究。 本研究依托瑞典犯罪登记系统的信息，纳入2000年至2015年间、年龄介于15至60岁的rape+定罪作案者。同时从瑞典全国人口登记系统中提取作案者的物质使用障碍、既往犯罪记录及精神障碍相关信息，并采用潜类别分析（Latent Class Analysis, LCA）对rape+作案者进行分类。 本研究共纳入3039名作案者，其中大多数为移民（n=1800；占比59.2%），而该移民群体中又有多数（n=1451；占比47.7%）出生于瑞典境外。潜类别分析共识别出两类作案者：A类——低犯罪类别（Low Offending Class, LOC）与B类——高犯罪类别（High Offending Class, HOC）。LOC组作案者的既往犯罪、精神障碍及物质使用障碍发生率均较低，而HOC组则表现出较高的上述三类问题发生率。HOC组可能由更多被警方熟知的“传统”罪犯构成，而LOC组则代表了此前未被警方纳入记录的个体。这两类独立的群体，以及我们发现的多数作案者为移民这一结果，均需要后续研究结合作案者的背景特征展开深入探讨。 要点 1. 瑞典境内强奸、加重型强奸、强奸未遂或加重型强奸未遂（rape+）的发案率呈上升趋势。 2. 被定罪的rape+作案者中，绝大多数为移民。 3. 潜类别分析（LCA）将rape+作案者划分为LOC与HOC两类。 强奸、加重型强奸、强奸未遂或加重型强奸未遂（rape+）在瑞典的发案率呈上升趋势。 绝大多数被定罪的rape+作案者为移民。 潜类别分析（LCA）将rape+作案者划分为LOC与HOC两类。