Vol. 17(3)- Replication Data for: Adversaries or Allies? Donald Trump’s Republican Support in Congress

Donald Trump’s first year in office received unprecedented media coverage, with many wondering whether congressional Republicans were “adversaries” or “allies” of the president’s legislative positions. Our paper explores this issue from two vantage points. First, we place Trump’s presidency in historical context by forecasting his Republican support with data from 1969 to 2016. We find that Republicans supported Trump’s legislative positions in 2017 at levels consistent with expectations, contrary to the views of some. Second, we explore the factors that explain why Republican lawmakers supported or opposed their party’s president. We find that conservative and establishment Republicans were more likely to support Trump, contrary to some claims, while female Republicans and those representing affluent, non-white districts were more likely to oppose Trump. Our paper concludes by discussing the broader implications of these results, including the role of identity in contemporary American politics and the possible realignment of the GOP.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）执政首年获得了史无前例的媒体报道，诸多舆论热议国会共和党议员究竟是总统立法立场的"对手"还是"盟友"。本研究从两个视角探讨该议题：其一，我们将特朗普的总统任期置于历史语境之中，借助1969年至2016年的数据集预测共和党议员对其的支持率。研究发现，2017年共和党议员对特朗普立法立场的支持率符合预期，这与部分观点相悖；其二，我们探究了能够解释共和党议员支持或反对本党总统的影响因素。结果显示，保守派与建制派共和党议员更倾向于支持特朗普，这与部分主张截然相反；而女性共和党议员以及代表富裕、非白人占比较高选区的议员则更有可能反对特朗普。本研究最后讨论了上述研究结果的广泛影响，包括身份政治在当代美国政治中的作用，以及美国共和党（GOP）可能发生的阵营重组。