Modelling consumer intakes of vegetable oils and fats

Vegetable oils and fats make up a significant part of the energy intake in typical European diets. However, their use as ingredients in a diverse range of different foods means that their consumption is often hidden, especially when oils and fats are used for cooking. As a result, there are no reliable estimates of the consumption of different vegetable oils and fats in the diet of European consumers for use in for example, nutritional assessments or chemical risk assessments. We have developed an innovative model to estimate the consumption of vegetable oils and fats by EU consumers using the EU consumption databases and elements of probabilistic modelling. A key feature of our approach is the assessment of uncertainty in the modelling assumptions that can be used to build user confidence and to guide future development.

植物油与油脂在典型欧洲膳食的能量摄入中占据重要份额。然而，由于其被广泛用作各类食品的配料，其消费量往往难以被精准追溯，在用于烹饪时这一问题尤为突出。因此，目前尚无针对欧洲消费者膳食中各类植物油与油脂消费量的可靠估算数据，无法为营养评估、化学风险评估等工作提供支撑。本研究开发了一款创新模型，依托欧盟消费数据库与概率建模方法，对欧盟消费者的植物油与油脂消费量进行估算。该方法的核心亮点在于对建模假设中的不确定性开展评估，这一环节可有效增强使用者对模型的信任度，并为后续研发工作提供明确指引。