Modeling ocelot (Leopardus pardalis) distribution in the southern limits in Brazil

Ocelot is a Neotropical wildcat with a broad geographic distribution. The southernmost region of its distribution is an ecotone zone between biomes Atlantic Forest and Pampa in Brazil. Ocelot is rarely seen in this region, especially in the Pampa, being one of the most endangered wildcats in this region. The objective of this study is to predict the potential distribution of ocelots in the southern limit of it known distribution and to measure the percentage of protected areas coverage. We collected 24 records of the species in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and we modeled the potential distribution using seven distinct algorithms tested using two evaluation metrics (TSS and AUC). The variables with the highest percentage contribution to the models were: BIO8, BIO19, BIO7 (related to temperature and precipitation) and NDVI. Additionally, we observed that of the areas considered most suitable for the species (8,388 km2), only (39 km2 or 0.46%) were included in the protected areas and these were primarily located in the Atlantic Forest biome. By contrast, the most suitable areas for the species in the Pampa biome were not covered by protected areas. We consider this to be a serious issue considering the species is endangered in the state.虎猫（Ocelot）是一种分布范围广泛的新热带区野猫。其分布最南端区域为巴西境内大西洋森林（Atlantic Forest）与潘帕斯草原（Pampa）两大生物群系间的生态交错带。虎猫在该区域极为罕见，尤其在潘帕斯草原地带，是该区域最濒危的野猫物种之一。 本研究旨在预测虎猫已知分布区最南端的潜在分布范围，并测算其保护区覆盖率。研究团队在南里奥格兰德州（Rio Grande do Sul）共收集到24条该物种的观测记录，采用7种不同算法构建潜在分布模型，并以TSS和AUC两种评估指标对模型性能进行检验。对模型贡献占比最高的环境变量包括：BIO8、BIO19、BIO7（与气温和降水相关）以及归一化差异植被指数（NDVI）。 研究结果显示，该物种的最适宜栖息地总面积为8388平方千米，其中仅39平方千米（占比0.46%）被纳入保护区范畴，且这些保护区主要分布于大西洋森林生物群系。相较之下，潘帕斯草原生物群系内的该物种最适宜栖息地未被任何保护区覆盖。鉴于该物种在该州已处于濒危状态，我们认为这一现状是一个严峻的问题。