Group regression results.

Given the magnitude impact of global value chains (GVCs) in reconstructing the pattern of world trade, its employment implications deserve thorough study. In this paper we explore the impact of GVCs position on employment across countries and its heterogeneous mechanisms. We perform an in-depth theoretical analysis followed by an empirical test using panel data for 56 industries in 42 countries from 2000 to 2014. The results show that enhancing the GVCs position will significantly increase employment, with a more pronounced effect in developing countries. Mechanical tests demonstrate a positive wage effect for developed countries. For developing countries, there is a positive demand effect and a negative factor substitution effect. Heterogeneity tests show that developed countries promote employment primarily by improving the forward GVCs position. Developing countries boost employment mainly by reducing the backward GVCs position. Further research has revealed that employment in developed countries has a clear preference for industries with higher GVCs, crowding out employment in other industries. This paper has enriched research on the employment implications of GVCs position and exploring the possible crowding effect during the evolution of the position of GVCs, which has been informative and insightful for countries in formulating GVCs participation and employment policies.鉴于全球价值链（Global Value Chains, GVCs）在重塑世界贸易格局中所产生的重大影响，其对就业的影响值得开展系统性深入研究。本文旨在探讨全球价值链位置对各国就业的影响及其异质性作用机制，先开展深入的理论剖析，随后采用2000年至2014年覆盖42个国家、56个行业的面板数据进行实证检验。研究结果显示，提升全球价值链位置能够显著拉动就业，且该促进效应在发展中国家更为显著。机制检验结果表明，发达国家通过该路径可获得正向工资效应；而发展中国家则同时存在正向需求效应与负向要素替代效应。异质性检验结果显示，发达国家主要通过提升前向全球价值链位置拉动就业，发展中国家则主要通过降低后向全球价值链位置实现就业增长。进一步研究发现，发达国家的就业明显偏向全球价值链位置更高的行业，进而对其他行业的就业产生挤出效应。本文丰富了全球价值链位置就业效应的相关研究，并探讨了全球价值链位置演进过程中可能存在的挤出效应，可为各国制定全球价值链参与策略与就业政策提供有益参考与深刻洞见。