Static Structural Resilience Indicators.

This study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the global frozen meat trade network from 2003 to 2023 and assess both its static and dynamic structural resilience. Based on UN commodity trade data, directed weighted networks for beef, pork, mutton, and poultry are constructed. By combining complex network theory and simulation models, the static resilience is analyzed from four dimensions: transmissibility, clustering, hierarchy, and assortativity. The impact of single node failures on network performance is simulated to assess dynamic resilience. The results indicate that the global frozen meat trade network shows a trend of polarization, with China emerging as the largest import hub and Brazil becoming the dominant exporter of beef and poultry, reflecting the coexistence of regionalization and globalization. The static resilience analysis reveals that the weighted network exhibits prominent hierarchy and increased assortativity. The poultry network has the highest transmissibility, while the beef network demonstrates the strongest resilience. Interruption simulation results show that the failure of core nodes causes more significant damage to the weighted network, but the network’s overall invulnerability to disruptions has increased over time. The conclusion emphasizes that the resilience of the frozen meat trade network is driven by both weights and topological structure. Reducing dependence on key nodes through diversified trade partners and optimizing regional cooperation is crucial for enhancing trade stability. The weighted directed network model and dynamic resilience evaluation framework proposed in this study provide new methods for global food trade risk management and supply chain optimization.

本研究旨在揭示2003至2023年全球冷冻肉类贸易网络的时空演化格局，并评估其静态与动态结构韧性。本研究基于联合国商品贸易数据，针对牛肉、猪肉、羊肉及禽肉品类构建了有向加权网络（Directed Weighted Network）。结合复杂网络理论（Complex Network Theory）与仿真模型，本研究从传递性、集聚性、层级性以及同配性（Assortativity）四个维度展开静态韧性分析。通过模拟单个节点失效对网络性能的影响，对动态韧性进行评估。
研究结果显示，全球冷冻肉类贸易网络呈现极化发展态势，中国已成为全球最大的冷冻肉类进口枢纽，而巴西则成为牛肉与禽肉的主导出口国，这反映出区域化与全球化并存的贸易格局。静态韧性分析表明，加权网络展现出显著的层级特征且同配性有所提升。禽肉网络的传递性最高，而牛肉网络的韧性最强。中断模拟结果显示，核心节点失效会对加权网络造成更为严重的破坏，但网络整体抵御扰动的能力随时间推移有所增强。
本研究结论强调，冷冻肉类贸易网络的韧性由权重与拓扑结构共同驱动。通过多元化贸易伙伴降低对关键节点的依赖，并优化区域合作，对提升贸易稳定性至关重要。本研究提出的有向加权网络模型与动态韧性评估框架，为全球粮食贸易风险管理与供应链优化提供了新的研究方法。