Environmental and hydro-climatic variables.

Malaria transmission is influenced by climate and land use/land cover change (LULC). This study examines the impact of climate and LULC on malaria risk in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Weekly malaria surveillance data between 2008 and 2019 from Ecuador’s Ministry of Public Health were combined with hydrometeorological and LULC data. Cross-correlation analyses identified time lags. Bayesian spatiotemporal models estimated annual LULC rates of change (ARC) by census area and assessed the effects on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum incidence. ARC for the five land cover classes (forest, agriculture, urban, shrub vegetation, water) ranged from -1 to 4% with agriculture increasing across areas. Forest and shrub vegetation ARC were significantly associated with both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Temperature and terrestrial water content showed consistent negative relationships with both species. Precipitation had varying effects on Plasmodium vivax (null) and Plasmodium falciparum (increase) incidence. Shrubs and forest expansion, increased temperature, and terrestrial water content reduced malaria incidence, while increased precipitation had varying effects. Relationships between malaria, LULC, and climate are complex, influencing risk profiles. These findings aid decision-making and guide further research in the region.疟疾传播受气候与土地利用/土地覆盖变化（Land Use/Land Cover Change，简称LULC）的影响。本研究针对厄瓜多尔亚马逊地区，探究气候与LULC对疟疾传播风险的影响。研究整合了厄瓜多尔公共卫生部2008至2019年间的周度疟疾监测数据，以及水文气象与LULC数据集。通过互相关分析确定了时间滞后效应。贝叶斯时空模型基于普查区域估算了LULC年变化率（Annual LULC Rates of Change，简称ARC），并评估了其对间日疟原虫（Plasmodium vivax）与恶性疟原虫（Plasmodium falciparum）感染发病率的影响。五类土地覆盖类型（森林、耕地、城市用地、灌丛植被、水域）的ARC取值范围为-1%至4%，其中各区域的耕地面积均呈扩张趋势。森林与灌丛植被的ARC与两种疟原虫的感染发病率均存在显著关联。气温与陆地水含量与两种疟原虫的感染发病率均呈现稳定的负相关关系。降水量对间日疟原虫的感染发病率无显著影响，而对恶性疟原虫的感染发病率则呈促进作用，二者影响存在差异。灌丛与森林扩张、气温升高以及陆地水含量提升均会降低疟疾发病率，而降水量变化的影响则存在不确定性。疟疾传播与LULC、气候之间的关联较为复杂，共同影响疟疾的风险分布特征。本研究结果可为该地区的决策制定提供参考，并为后续相关研究提供指引。