DataSheet1_A biofuels outlook for the U.S. and Brazil and what it might mean for sustainable development goal 7.pdf

Sustainable Development goals set out at the United Nations with broad support include targets relating to food security, energy access, and the environment. Some national policies have turned to renewable fuels to achieve energy and environmental goals, with biofuel use mandates applied in countries that account for significant market shares. However, the context in which the development goals were set and these biofuel policies put in place might differ from current and future conditions. The scope for biofuel expansion might be restrained by technical limits on blending rates, slower future growth in transportation energy demand after the pandemic, and the interactions with feedstock and other agricultural commodity markets, which could take different forms given larger biofuel volumes and other changes. Considering the expected policies and broader context, this study provides a 10-year outlook for biofuel use, production, feedstock demands, and other related variables with a primary focus on the United States and Brazil. We find scope for increasing biofuel use in both countries, particularly for biomass-based diesel, in the projection period and growing displacement of petroleum product-related greenhouse gas emissions, which is consistent with sustainable development goal seven.

获得广泛支持的联合国可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals）涵盖粮食安全、能源获取与环境保护等相关议题。部分国家为达成能源与环境目标，已将政策转向可再生燃料，多个占据显著市场份额的国家已推行生物燃料（biofuel）使用强制政策。然而，可持续发展目标制定及上述生物燃料政策推行时的背景，或与当前及未来的实际情况存在差异。生物燃料扩张的空间可能受到多重因素制约：混合比例的技术限制、疫情后交通运输能源需求未来增速放缓，以及与原料（feedstock）及其他农产品市场的互动关系——鉴于生物燃料体量的扩大及其他变化，这类互动可能呈现不同形式。结合预期政策与更广泛的背景，本研究针对生物燃料使用、生产、原料需求及其他相关变量开展了十年期展望，研究主要聚焦于美国与巴西。本研究发现，在预测期内两国均存在扩大生物燃料使用的空间，尤其是生物质基柴油（biomass-based diesel）；同时石油制品相关温室气体排放量将持续被替代，这与可持续发展目标7（Sustainable Development Goal 7）的要求相符。