Reform of Soybean Subsidy Policies and Its Impact on Farmer Income and Income Inequality

Based on provincial panel data from 2001 to 2022, this study employs Difference-in-Differences (DID) models and mediation effect models to empirically analyze the impact of soybean subsidy policy reforms on farmer income and income inequality. The findings reveal that the reform of soybean subsidy policies has significantly increased farmers' operational income, wage income, and total income, a conclusion that remains robust under rigorous robustness tests. Mediation effect tests identify the enhancement of soybean production capacity as a critical pathway through which subsidy policy reforms influence farmer income and income disparity. Further analysis indicates that while the reform tends to widen gaps in operational income, wage income, and total income among farmers, it also contributes to a synergistic improvement in both income levels and inequality when these factors are considered holistically. Given these findings, while affirming the yield-boosting effects of soybean subsidy policies, a dual approach combining price-based regulation with income-support measures should be adopted to enhance farmer income and reduce income inequality.

本研究基于2001年至2022年的省级面板数据，运用双重差分（Difference-in-Differences, DID）模型与中介效应模型，实证分析大豆补贴政策改革对农民收入及收入不平等的影响。研究结果显示，大豆补贴政策改革显著提升了农民的经营性收入、工资性收入与总收入，该结论在严格的稳健性检验下依然保持稳健。中介效应检验证实，大豆生产能力的提升是补贴政策改革作用于农民收入与收入差距的关键传导路径。进一步分析表明，尽管该改革倾向于拉大农民经营性收入、工资性收入与总收入的差距，但综合考量各类因素后，其可同时实现收入水平与收入不平等状况的协同改善。综上，在肯定大豆补贴政策增产效应的前提下，应采取价格调控与收入支持相结合的双重策略，以提升农民收入并缩小收入差距。