Entropy weights for tier 3 indicators of CCI.

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight the role of debt sustainability in achieving sustainable development. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an international cooperation effort that is endorsed by over 150 countries and organizations. Given the alignment between BRI development goals and the SDGs, the issue of debt sustainability in BRI countries warrants attention. While existing studies focus on sovereign risk in debt sustainability, there is a lack of emphasis on currency risk, indicating a need for further investigation to mitigate risks and comprehensively evaluate debt stability. Using data from 142 countries, this study examines currency risk reduction in BRI countries by assessing currency competitiveness. We find that the US dollar (USD) is the most competitive currency among BRI countries, followed by the Euro (EUR), Chinese yuan (CNY), sterling pound (GBP), and Japanese yen (JPY). The USD maintains its competitive edge over time, making it the preferred choice, with the EUR as a less optimal option and the CNY showing potential. Geographically, the EUR’s close ties with BRI countries lend it prominence, followed by the USD, with the CNY gaining traction. GBP and JPY are considered conservative choices. Recommendations for currency selection vary based on countries’ competitiveness, bilateral relationships, and development status.联合国可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs）明确了债务可持续性在实现可持续发展进程中的关键作用。中国提出的“一带一路”倡议（Belt and Road Initiative, BRI）是一项获得150余个国家和组织认可的国际合作框架。鉴于“一带一路”倡议的发展目标与可持续发展目标高度契合，“一带一路”沿线国家的债务可持续性问题亟需得到关注。现有研究多聚焦于债务可持续性中的主权风险，却鲜有对货币风险的重视，这意味着亟需开展进一步研究以缓释相关风险、全面评估债务稳定性。本研究依托142个国家的数据集，通过评估货币竞争力，探究“一带一路”沿线国家的货币风险缓释路径。研究发现，美元（US Dollar, USD）是“一带一路”沿线国家中竞争力最强的货币，其后依次为欧元（Euro, EUR）、人民币（Chinese Yuan, CNY）、英镑（Sterling Pound, GBP）与日元（Japanese Yen, JPY）。美元长期保持竞争优势，成为首选货币；欧元的竞争力相对偏弱，而人民币则展现出良好的发展潜力。从地域维度来看，欧元与“一带一路”沿线国家联系紧密，因此竞争力突出，紧随其后的是美元，人民币的受认可度正逐步提升；英镑与日元则被视为稳健保守的货币选择。研究建议，货币选择需结合各国的货币竞争力、双边合作关系以及经济发展现状进行差异化考量。