Complexity theory for the modern Chinese economy from an information entropy perspective: Modeling of economic efficiency and growth potential

Complexity modelling of economic efficiency and growth potential is increasingly essential for countries and provinces. Evaluating the monetary flows, kinetic energy (efficiency) and potential capacity (resilience) provides crucial information for economic development. In the paper, the authors analyze growth opportunities for the Chinese economy from a system science point of view, using the perspective of information entropy, based on the input-output tables. Over the past four decades of reform and opening-up, China has made remarkable progress in its economic development. In 2007, China’s GDP was at its fastest pace in history at 14.2% growth. However, after the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy experienced a downward trend and China's economic development also settled on a medium-low level of development. The traditional perspective is to rank regional development only based on GDP growth, whereas here, the authors advocate another evaluation method based on efficiency and potential growth. Unbalanced regional economic development has become problematic and has become a barrier for sustainability of China’s economy. The results of the research indicate firstly that China’s regional development in 2007 and 2012 has been unequal between the provinces. Secondly, the authors found that Shandong province had significantly higher indicators for efficiency and potential growth than others in the same circumstances. Authors observe that provinces tend to carry out industrial policies and adjust the structure of industry on a local level. This analysis demonstrates that the spatial imbalance of efficiency and potential of economic development under the perspective of provincial-level regions. From the perspective of industry, it indicates that the supply chain is too short, mainly focusing on the mining and processing of resources and minerals in the original upstream industry chain, while the downstream is not fully utilized. These represent some unique insights yielded through this type of analysis that authors advocate applying more broadly.开展经济体效率与增长潜力的复杂性建模，对于国家及省级行政单位而言愈发关键。对货币流动、动能（即效率）与潜在产能（即韧性）进行评估，可为经济发展提供重要决策参考。本研究基于投入产出表（input-output tables），结合信息熵（information entropy）的分析视角，从系统科学维度探讨中国经济的增长机遇。 过往四十年的改革开放进程中，中国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就。2007年，中国GDP增速达14.2%，创下历史最高增速纪录。然而2008年全球金融危机后，全球经济步入下行通道，中国经济发展也进入中低速增长阶段。 传统区域发展评估范式仅以GDP增速作为排名依据，而本研究倡导一种基于经济效率与增长潜力的新型评估方法。区域经济发展失衡已成为突出问题，制约了中国经济的可持续发展。 研究结果主要包含两点：其一，2007年与2012年中国各省域间的区域发展存在显著失衡；其二，在同等条件下，山东省的经济效率与增长潜力指标均显著高于其他省份。作者观察到，各省通常会从地方层面制定产业政策并调整产业结构。 本次分析从省级行政区视角，揭示了经济发展效率与增长潜力的空间失衡格局。 从产业维度来看，当前供应链偏短，主要集中在资源与矿产开采加工等初始上游产业链环节，下游环节尚未得到充分开发利用。 此类分析能够产出极具价值的独特视角，作者呼吁在更广范围内推广应用这类研究方法。