Bioclimatic zoning and trend analysis applied to broilers

ABSTRACT The objective of the present study was to establish the bioclimatic zoning by the temperature and humidity index (THI), considering a historical period and a future scenario, in order to represent the thermal environment for broiler breeding in the State of Minas Gerais. A historical series (1976 - 2014) of THI minimum, average and maximum calculated based on data from 48 conventional meteorological stations was used, belonging to the National Institute of Meteorology of the State of Minas Gerais. The analysis of the temporal series was based on the Mann-Kendall test and linear regression. A geostatistical analysis was also carried out to determine the comfort zoning of broilers as a function of the THI intervals. In this way, the THI spatial mapping methodologies and trend analysis for the prediction of a possible future climate scenario can help in the development of risk maps for monitoring thermal comfort of broilers, being indispensable in the planning of actions for the mitigation of the climatic change impacts on the productive chain of the State of Minas Gerais.摘要 本研究旨在依托历史时段与未来情景，基于温度湿度指数（Temperature Humidity Index，THI）开展生物气候区划，以精准表征米纳斯吉拉斯州肉鸡养殖的热环境特征。本研究借助米纳斯吉拉斯州国家气象研究所下辖的48个常规气象站点的观测数据，计算得到1976-2014年的THI最小值、均值与最大值序列。本研究运用曼-肯德尔检验（Mann-Kendall test）与线性回归（linear regression）方法对时间序列展开分析，并通过地统计分析（geostatistical analysis）基于THI区间划定肉鸡热舒适区划。综上，用于未来气候情景预测的THI空间制图方法与趋势分析手段，可为肉鸡热舒适监测风险图谱的构建提供技术支撑，同时对米纳斯吉拉斯州制定减缓气候变化对肉鸡养殖产业链影响的相关行动规划具有不可或缺的重要意义。