Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies in a below 2-degree and food-secure world – supplementary spatial data

Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies in a below 2-degree and food-secure world – supplementary spatial data
Authors: Marcel Kok, Johan Meijer, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Jelle Hilbers, Marco Immovilli, Jan Janse, Elke Stehfest, Michel Bakkenes, Andrzej Tabeau, Aafke Schipper, Rob Alkemade
Point of contact: [e-mail]
Research paper summary: Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability-oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the implementation of the CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We designed two ambitious global conservation strategies, 'Half Earth' (HE) and 'Sharing the Planet' (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide nature's contributions to people (NCP), while also limiting global warming below 2 degrees and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the 'Middle of the Road' Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline. We found that the HE strategy performs generally better for terrestrial biodiversity (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Area of Habitat, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) in currently still natural regions. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, for freshwater biodiversity and for regulating NCP (pest control, pollination, erosion control, water quality). However, both strategies were insufficient to restore biodiversity and corresponded with considerable increases in food security risks and global temperature. Only when we combined the conservation strategies with a portfolio of 'integrated sustainability measures', including climate change mitigation and reductions of food waste and animal product consumption, our scenarios resulted in a restoration of biodiversity and NCP while keeping global warming below two degrees and food security risks below the baseline projection.
Contents: This repository contains the supplementary spatial data describing the specific prioritization of conservation areas under the Half Earth (HE) and Sharing the Planet (SP) scenarios, and the resulting scenario land use and MSA data sets for the year 2050, including also a baseline (BL) scenario. All spatial data is in geotiff format at a 10 arcsecond resolution in WGS84 coordinate system. Detailed description of the methodology is provided in the paper listed under "related identifiers".
Keywords: Nature conservation, Half Earth, Sharing the Planet, Climate Change, Food Security, Solution-oriented scenarios, Biodiversity, Nature's Contribution to People, NCP

评估2℃温控与粮食安全场景下的雄心勃勃的自然保护策略——补充空间数据集
作者：Marcel Kok、Johan Meijer、Willem-Jan van Zeist、Jelle Hilbers、Marco Immovilli、Jan Janse、Elke Stehfest、Michel Bakkenes、Andrzej Tabeau、Aafke Schipper、Rob Alkemade
联系人：[e-mail]
研究论文摘要：当前多项未来社会经济发展路径（即便面向可持续性的情景）均预测全球生物多样性将持续衰退。这一现状引出核心议题：如何推动生物多样性走上恢复之路——这也是《生物多样性公约》（Convention on Biological Diversity, CBD）昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架落地实施的核心挑战。本研究设计了两项雄心勃勃的全球自然保护策略——“地球一半”（Half Earth, HE）与“共享地球”（Sharing the Planet, SP），并评估二者在将全球温升控制在2℃以内、保障粮食安全的前提下，恢复陆地与淡水生物多样性、提供自然对人类的贡献（Nature's Contributions to People, NCP）的能力。研究采用整合评估框架IMAGE与GLOBIO生物多样性模型，以“中间道路”共享社会经济路径（Shared Socio-economic Pathway, SSP2）及其预测的人口增长作为基准情景。结果显示，“地球一半”策略在当前仍为自然区域的陆地生物多样性（包括生物多样性完整性（MSA）、栖息地面积、地球生命力指数（Living Planet Index, LPI）、红色名录指数（Red List Index, RLI））方面整体表现更优；而“共享地球”策略则在人类活动区域的生物多样性、淡水生物多样性以及调节型自然对人类的贡献（包括病虫害防治、授粉、水土保持、水质改善）方面提升效果更显著。但两类策略均不足以实现生物多样性恢复，且会伴随粮食安全风险与全球温升的显著上升。仅当将自然保护策略与一系列“整合型可持续措施”（包括气候变化减缓、减少食物浪费与动物性产品消费）相结合时，本研究的情景方能实现生物多样性与自然对人类的贡献的恢复，同时将全球温升控制在2℃以内，且粮食安全风险低于基准情景的预测值。
数据集内容：本仓库包含补充空间数据，涵盖“地球一半”与“共享地球”情景下的自然保护区域优先划定方案，以及2050年各情景的土地利用与MSA数据集，同时包含基准（BL）情景数据。所有空间数据均采用WGS84坐标系、10角秒分辨率的GeoTIFF格式存储。研究方法的详细说明可参见“关联标识”项下的论文。
关键词：自然保护、地球一半、共享地球、气候变化、粮食安全、面向解决方案的情景、生物多样性、自然对人类的贡献（NCP）