Resilience-robust policy design for coupled human-water systems

This project provides a resilience-based framework to identify optimal solutions for a coupled human-water system in response to various future socioeconomic and climate forcing scenarios, which are represented by a set of downscaled shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios. We developed an integrated system dynamic model to evaluate potential solutions for water extractions and their robustness in accordance with five resilience objectives. Using the Rechna Doab region of Pakistan as a real-world example of a coupled human-water system, the system's response to socioeconomic and climate stressors is evaluated.本项目构建了一套基于韧性（Resilience）的分析框架，用于针对未来多种社会经济与气候强迫情景，识别耦合人类-水系统（Coupled Human-Water System）的最优解决方案；该情景集由一组降尺度后的共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP）情景所表征。我们研发了一套集成系统动力学模型（System Dynamic Model），用于评估取水方案的潜在效果，并依据五项韧性目标校验其鲁棒性。本研究以巴基斯坦雷奇纳多阿布地区作为耦合人类-水系统的真实典型案例，对该系统应对社会经济与气候胁迫因子的响应情况展开了评估。