EU27&UK gas supply-storage-consumption and potential solutions to fill Russian gap with daily resolutions

Russia is the largest natural gas supplier to the EU. The invasion of Ukraine was followed by a cut-off of gas supplies from Russia to many EU countries, and the EU is planning to ban or dramatically reduce its dependence from Russia. To quantify the magnitude of the Russian gas used for different countries and sectors and the potential solutions to the Russian gas gap, we provide two daily resolution datasets: 1) EU27&UK daily gas supply-consumption (EUGasSC), and 2) EU27&UK daily gas reduction potential (EUGasRP). EUGasSC (from 2016-2022) provides the country- and sector-specific natural gas supply-storage-consumption (including Russian Supply Share) in the EU27&UK at a daily resolution, which is aimed to quantify the shortfalls if Russian imports were to stop. EUGasRP (for 2021) shows the maximal daily gas conservation potentials estimated by reducing demand for heating and/or increasing power generation from other sources, i.e., coal, nuclear, and biomass. They can be used as either input or reference datasets for further research in various fields, such as gas/energy modeling, carbon emission, climate change, geopolitical policy discussions, and the international gas/energy market. The units of the two datasets are KWh. Preprint of our paper: https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2022-246/ Website of our datasets: https://eugas.herokuapp.com/ Github of our work: https://github.com/chuanlongZhou/russia_gas_essd.git The EUGasSC dataset was developed with a gas network flow simulation based on flow mass balance by combining data from multiple datasets including ENTSO-G, ENTSO-E, and Eurostat energy balance (annual and monthly). The EUGasSC dataset was validated with BP Statistical Review of World Energy and multiple Eurostat datasets. The EUGasSC shows the share of gas supplied by Russia in each country to analyze the ‘gap’ that would result from a stop of all Russian exports to Europe. The EUGasRP is developed for the potential solutions to fill the Russian gap in the EU27&UK. We analyze gas reductions for reducing demand for heating and increasing power generation from other sources, i.e., coal, nuclear, and biomass, that can substitute the gas. For the heating sector, we analyze reduction scenarios for weekdays and weekends of household and public buildings. The reduction estimations are based on empirical temperature-gas-consumption (TGC) curves based on population-weighted air temperatures using the Eurostat population dataset and ERA5 daily 2-meters air temperature data. The values provided in EUGasRP assume the following reduction scenarios: 1) households on weekdays adopt a 2 °C lower critical temperature and follow the lower 20th percentile of TGC curves to define the slope, 2) households on weekends adopt a 2 °C lower critical temperature and the lower 40th percentile of TGC curves, and 3) public buildings adopt a 4 °C lower critical temperature and the lower 20th percentile of the TGS curve. For the power sector, we assume that the electricity generated with gas can be substituted by boosting the hourly electricity generated with coal, nuclear, and biomass to certain observed higher levels. We estimate the observed higher levels by95% (as maximal gas reduction) of the maximum observed diurnal hourly capacities for coal, nuclear, and biomass for each country based on observed ENTSO-E electricity production data from 2019 to 2021. We also provide further discussions in our paper for 1) uncertainties of the two datasets, 2) the moderate scenarios for gas reductions, 3) transferring gas savings from countries with surplus to those with deficits, and 4) increasing imports from other countries like Norway, the US, and Australia from either pipelines or LNG. Based on our analysis, we argue that with plausible demand reductions, shifts in power generation towards nuclear and coal, and intra-EU and international coordination, particularly with the UK, the US, Australia, and Norway, it should be possible for the EU to make up for the sudden loss of Russian gas.俄罗斯是欧盟最大的天然气供应国。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，俄罗斯对欧盟多国的天然气供应被切断，欧盟正计划禁止或大幅减少对俄罗斯天然气的依赖。为量化不同国家、不同行业使用的俄罗斯天然气规模，以及填补俄罗斯天然气缺口的潜在解决方案，我们提供两套日分辨率数据集：1）欧盟27国及英国（EU27&UK）每日天然气供需储数据集（EUGasSC），2）欧盟27国及英国（EU27&UK）每日天然气减排潜力数据集（EUGasRP）。 EUGasSC的时间跨度为2016-2022年，提供了欧盟27国及英国分国家、分行业的天然气供应-存储-消费数据（含俄罗斯供应占比），分辨率为每日尺度，旨在量化若全面停止俄罗斯天然气进口后的供应缺口。 EUGasRP的时间跨度为2021年，展示了通过减少供暖需求或增加煤炭、核能与生物质等其他能源发电所估算的最大每日天然气减排潜力。 该两套数据集可作为各类研究的输入或参考数据集，应用领域涵盖天然气/能源建模、碳排放研究、气候变化分析、地缘政治政策讨论以及国际天然气/能源市场研究等。两套数据集的单位均为千瓦时（KWh）。 本研究的预印本：https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2022-246/ 本数据集的官方网站：https://eugas.herokuapp.com/ 本研究的GitHub仓库：https://github.com/chuanlongZhou/russia_gas_essd.git EUGasSC数据集基于多源数据（包括ENTSO-G、ENTSO-E以及欧盟统计局（Eurostat）能源平衡表的年度与月度数据），结合流量质量平衡的天然气管网流动模拟方法构建。该数据集已通过BP世界能源统计年鉴（BP Statistical Review of World Energy）与多项欧盟统计局数据集进行验证。EUGasSC展示了各国天然气供应中俄罗斯来源的占比，用于分析全面停止俄罗斯对欧天然气出口后可能产生的供应缺口。 EUGasRP旨在为填补欧盟27国及英国的俄罗斯天然气缺口提供潜在解决方案。我们分析了两类减排路径：一是通过降低供暖需求减少用气，二是通过煤炭、核能与生物质等替代能源增加发电以替代天然气发电。针对供暖行业，我们分别分析了住宅与公共建筑在工作日与周末的减排情景。减排估算基于经验温度-用气量（temperature-gas-consumption, TGC）曲线，该曲线结合了欧盟统计局人口数据集与ERA5每日2米气温数据，以人口加权气温计算得出。 EUGasRP中的数值基于以下三类减排情景设定：1）工作日住宅用户将临界温度下调2℃，并采用TGC曲线的下20%分位来确定斜率，2）周末住宅用户将临界温度下调2℃，并采用TGC曲线的下40%分位，3）公共建筑采用4℃下调的临界温度并采用TGS曲线的下20%分位。针对电力行业，我们假设以煤炭、核能与生物质发电替代天然气发电，具体方式为将上述三类能源的小时发电量提升至观测到的更高水平。我们基于2019-2021年的ENTSO-E电力生产观测数据，以各国煤炭、核能与生物质发电的最大观测日度小时容量的95%（作为最大减排幅度）来确定该观测上限。 我们还在论文中对以下内容进行了进一步探讨：1）两套数据集的不确定性；2）天然气减排的温和情景；3）将天然气盈余国家的节省气量转移至赤字国家；4）增加从挪威、美国与澳大利亚等国通过管道或液化天然气（Liquefied Natural Gas, LNG）进口的天然气规模。基于我们的分析，我们认为，通过合理的需求削减、发电结构向核能与煤炭转型，以及欧盟内部与国际协调（尤其是与英国、美国、澳大利亚及挪威的协调），欧盟应当能够弥补俄罗斯天然气供应突然中断带来的缺口。