Threshold panel model regression results.

With the decrease in fertility rate and the extension of life expectancy, China’s ageing degree is deepening, and there is a decrease in the number of labor force individuals, leading to an increase in the burden of old-age care and constraining economic growth. The improvement of human capital can promote economic growth. Research is rquired to determine whether factors such as the teacher-student ratio (quality of education) and the average number of years of schooling (quantity of education) can help alleviate the negative impacts of ageing. The findings demonstrate that education, both in terms of quantity and quality, can successfully reduce the detrimental consequences of ageing. The threshold effect model’s findings indicate that both the amount and quality of education can be more effective in reducing the negative impacts of ageing when average years of education surpass 10.87 years and the teacher-student ratio hits 7.80 (780 instructors per 1000 pupils). The results of heterogeneity analysis reveal that both the quantity and quality of education could potentially mitigate the negative effects of ageing in the eastern and western regions, although these factors do not seem to have the same effect in the central region. In the northern and southern regions, it is found that while the quantity of education can help alleviate the negative effects of ageing, the quality of education is effective only in the southern region and not in the northern region. Therefore, one potential strategy to counteract the adverse effects of ageing with a declining number of children is to increase the teacher-student ratio and extend the duration of free education.

伴随生育率下降与人均预期寿命延长，中国人口老龄化程度不断加深，劳动年龄人口规模缩减，由此带来养老负担加重，并对经济增长形成制约。人力资本提升可推动经济增长。本研究旨在探明，师生比（teacher-student ratio，即教育质量）与人均受教育年限（即教育规模）等因素，能否有效缓解人口老龄化带来的负面影响。研究结果显示，无论从教育规模还是教育质量维度来看，均能有效降低人口老龄化的不利影响。基于门槛效应模型（threshold effect model）的分析结果表明，当人均受教育年限超过10.87年、师生比达到7.80（即每千名学生配备7.8名教师）时，教育规模与教育质量在缓解老龄化负面影响方面的作用会更为显著。异质性分析（heterogeneity analysis）结果显示，在东部与西部地区，教育规模与质量均能有效缓解老龄化的负面影响；但在中部地区，该类因素并未表现出显著的调节作用。在南北区域层面，教育规模可有效缓解老龄化的负面影响，而教育质量仅在南方地区发挥作用，北方地区则未显现出显著效果。据此，针对儿童规模缩减背景下的老龄化负面影响，可行的应对策略之一为提升师生比并延长免费教育年限。