Change explained variable.

China’s economy has made remarkable achievements in the past 40 years. However, the economic development is accompanied by serious environmental pollution. Chinese government has promulgated many policies to reduce environment pollution. However, it is doubtable whether the increased uncertainty in environmental policies inhibits enterprise development. Therefore in this study we use Mathematical Derivation, Stepwise Regression Method and Regulated Effect to investigate the impact of environmental policy uncertainty on enterprise productivity. The results show that (1) environmental policy uncertainty significantly inhibits the improvement of enterprise productivity. (2) environmental policy uncertainty inhibits enterprise productivity by enterprise innovation, human capital and foreign direct investment; (3) environmental policy uncertainty has heterogeneous impact on enterprise productivity. According to this study we also provide some beneficial environmental policy suggestions for the Chinese government. Such as the government should build a stable economic environment, maintain the sustainability of local environmental regulation policies and formulate more detailed measures to adapt different types of enterprises.

过去四十年来，中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就。但经济发展的同时也伴随了严重的环境污染问题。中国政府已出台多项政策以降低环境污染。然而，环境政策不确定性的加剧是否会抑制企业发展，仍有待商榷。因此，本研究采用数学推导（Mathematical Derivation）、逐步回归法（Stepwise Regression Method）与调节效应（Regulated Effect），探究环境政策不确定性对企业生产率的影响。研究结果表明：（1）环境政策不确定性会显著抑制企业生产率的提升；（2）环境政策不确定性通过企业创新、人力资本与外商直接投资（Foreign Direct Investment）路径抑制企业生产率；（3）环境政策不确定性对企业生产率存在异质性影响。基于本研究结论，我们还为中国政府提出了若干具有实践价值的环境政策建议：例如，政府应营造稳定的经济发展环境，保持地方环境规制政策的可持续性，并制定更精细化的适配不同类型企业的政策措施。