National and Subnational Estimates of the Covid 19 Reproduction Number (R) for the United Kingdom Based on Test Results

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in the United Kingdom. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively.

本研究旨在识别新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情流行期间，英国国家级及亚国家级层面的病毒再生数（reproduction number）、传播速率与倍增时间的变化情况，同时校正全国与地区层面病例报告延迟所带来的潜在偏倚。研究结果受检测力度变化的影响：检测力度的提升与降低，将分别导致再生数的估计值相应升高与降低。