Decomposition results of spatial effects of SDM.

To clarify the role of agricultural technological progress in the process of rural revitalization, this paper uses the agricultural panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2020 to measure the Total Factor Productivity of agriculture, analyzes the impact direction and spatial spillover effect of agricultural technological progress on China’s rural revitalization through the spatial Durbin model, and analyzes the threshold mechanism of agricultural technological progress on China’s rural revitalization by using the panel threshold model. The results are as follows: (1) The spatial and geographical agglomeration of interprovincial rural revitalization in China has gradually weakened, and the regional imbalance has improved; (2) The progress in agricultural technology plays a positive role in promoting China’s interprovincial rural revitalization, and the overall nonlinear characteristics of "first inhibiting and then promoting" are presented, and the conclusion is still robust after fully considering the factors of time, region and economic distance; (3) Further analysis shows that the impact of agricultural technological progress on China’s interprovincial rural revitalization is based on the threshold constraints of land-scale operation and agricultural-industry agglomeration, and shows significant spatial heterogeneity. The inherent reason is that whether the land-scale operation entity adopts long-term investment decisions such as new agricultural technology depends on the expectation of land management risk stability, while agricultural-industry agglomeration hinders the diffusion and spillover of agricultural technology due to the exclusive characteristics of agricultural production geographical locations. Therefore, in the future of China’s rural revitalization, the government should guide the large-scale operation of land and agricultural production according to local conditions to give full play to the positive spillover effect and spatial radiation capacity of agricultural technology.

为厘清农业技术进步在乡村振兴进程中的作用，本文采用2007-2020年中国31个省份的农业面板数据，测度农业全要素生产率（Total Factor Productivity），通过空间杜宾模型（Spatial Durbin Model）分析农业技术进步对中国乡村振兴（Rural Revitalization）的影响方向与空间溢出效应，并借助面板门槛模型（Panel Threshold Model）探究农业技术进步对中国乡村振兴的门槛机制。研究结果如下：（1）中国省域乡村振兴的空间地理集聚态势逐步弱化，区域非均衡状况有所改善；（2）农业技术进步对中国省域乡村振兴具有显著正向促进作用，整体呈现“先抑制后促进”的非线性特征，在充分考量时间、区域与经济距离等因素后，该结论依然保持稳健；（3）进一步分析表明，农业技术进步对中国省域乡村振兴的影响受到土地规模经营与农业产业集聚的门槛约束，并表现出显著的空间异质性。其内在机理在于：土地规模经营主体是否采纳农业新技术等长期投资决策，取决于其对土地经营风险稳定性的预期；而农业产业集聚因农业生产地理位置的排他性特征，阻碍了农业技术的扩散与溢出。因此，在未来中国乡村振兴进程中，政府应因地制宜引导土地规模化经营与农业生产布局，充分释放农业技术的正向溢出效应与空间辐射能力。