Moran’s I.

This study presents the case of China’s Jiangsu Province. The spatial-temporal pattern evolution of different manufacturing sectors is discussed using spatial analysis technology (spatial autocorrelation and standard deviation ellipses). The Granger test is used to analyze the relationship between the change in the manufacturing industry spatial agglomeration and regional economic differences. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) The spatial agglomeration trend of most manufacturing sectors is weakening. Much of the manufacturing sector, like the rubber and plastic product industries, has been transferred from southern to northern Jiangsu. 2) From the scale, only a minority of these enterprises possess substantial registered capital. The capital injection scale of more manufacturing enterprises is insignificant. At the same time, manufacturing companies with substantial financial resources are increasingly inclined to choose less-concentrated areas when choosing new investment areas. 3) The reduction of regional economic differences is considered to be the Granger-cause for the decline of the spatial agglomeration degree of the manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province. Analyzing the spatiotemporal pattern of the manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province will provide specific policy reference values for the manufacturing industry and economic development of Jiangsu province. In addition, for companies of different sizes, the findings of this paper also provide valuable references on how they can choose suitable investment locations according to their size in the future.本研究以中国江苏省为研究案例。研究借助空间分析技术，包括空间自相关（spatial autocorrelation）与标准差椭圆（standard deviation ellipses），探讨不同制造业细分行业的时空格局演化规律；采用格兰杰（Granger）因果检验法，剖析制造业空间集聚变化与区域经济差距之间的内在关联。 本研究得出如下结论： 1. 多数制造业细分行业的空间集聚趋势呈弱化态势，橡胶及塑料制品业等诸多制造业门类已从苏南地区向苏北地区转移。 2. 从企业规模维度分析，仅少数制造企业拥有雄厚的注册资本，多数制造企业的投资规模相对有限；与此同时，资金实力雄厚的制造企业在选择新增投资区位时，愈发倾向于集聚程度较低的区域。 3. 区域经济差距的缩小，被证实为江苏省制造业空间集聚程度下降的格兰杰成因。 对江苏省制造业时空格局的分析，可为江苏省制造业发展与区域经济建设提供针对性的政策参考依据。此外，本研究结论还可为不同规模的制造企业未来依据自身规模选择适宜的投资区位提供有益参考。