Genealogical lineage sorting leads to significant, but incorrect Bayesian multilocus inference of population structure

Over the past decades the use of molecular markers has revolutionized biology and led to the foundation of a new research discipline -- phylogeography. Of
particular interest has been the inference of population structure and biogeography. While initial studies focused on mtDNA as a molecular marker, it has become apparent
that selection and genealogical lineage sorting could lead to erroneous inferences. As it is not clear to what extent these forces affect a given marker, it has become
common practice to use the combined evidence from a set of molecular markers as an attempt to recover the signals that approximate the true underlying demography.
Typically, the number of markers used is determined by either budget constraints or by statistical power required to recognize significant population differentiation.
Using microsatellite markers from Drosophila and humans we show that even large numbers of loci (>50) can frequently result in statistically well supported, but
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近数十年来，分子标记（molecular marker）的应用彻底革新了生物学领域，并催生了一门全新的研究学科——系统地理学（phylogeography）。其中，种群结构与生物地理学的推断始终是核心研究议题。尽管早期研究多以线粒体DNA（mtDNA）作为分子标记，但已有研究表明，选择作用与基因谱系分选过程可能导致推断结果出现偏差。由于尚不明确这些进化力量对特定分子标记的影响程度，学界逐渐形成通用实践：整合多组分子标记的证据，以还原更接近真实种群底层历史动态的信号。通常而言，研究所选用的分子标记数量受限于预算约束，或是取决于识别显著种群分化所需的统计效力。本研究借助果蝇（Drosophila）与人类的微卫星标记（microsatellite marker）展开分析，结果显示，即便使用超过50个位点的大规模标记集，往往也能获得统计学上支持度较高，但