NOAA/WDS Paleoclimatology - Middle Yellow River, China 440 Year Streamflow Reconstruction

This study investigates the potential reconstruction of summer monsoon season streamflow variations in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from tree rings in the Qinling Mountains. The regional chronology is significantly positively correlated with the July-October streamflow of the middle Yellow River from 1919 to 1949, and the derived reconstruction explains 36.4% of the actual streamflow variance during this period. High streamflows occurred during 1644-1757, 1795-1806, 1818-1833, 1882-1900, 1909-1920 and 1933-1963. Low streamflows occurred during 1570-1643, 1758-1794, 1807-1817, 1834-1868, 1921-1932 and 1964-2012. High and low streamflow intervals also correspond well to the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity. Some negative correlations of our streamflow reconstruction with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) also suggest the linkage of regional streamflow changes to the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Although climate change has some important effects on the variation in streamflow, anthropogenic activities are the primary factors mediating the flow cessation of the Yellow River, based on streamflow reconstruction.

本研究以秦岭树木年轮为代用资料，探究黄河中游夏季风期径流量变化的重建潜力。该区域年轮年表与1919-1949年黄河中游7-10月径流量呈显著正相关，据此重建的序列可解释该时段36.4%的实际径流量方差。径流量偏高时段包括1644-1757年、1795-1806年、1818-1833年、1882-1900年、1909-1920年及1933-1963年；径流量偏低时段则为1570-1643年、1758-1794年、1807-1817年、1834-1868年、1921-1932年及1964-2012年。径流量的高低时段与东亚夏季风（East Asian summer monsoon, EASM）强度对应良好。本重建的径流量序列与印度洋-太平洋海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature, SST）呈负相关，这也表明区域径流量变化与亚洲夏季风环流存在关联。尽管气候变化对径流量变化具有一定重要影响，但基于径流量重建结果可知，人类活动是介导黄河断流的主要驱动因素。