Territorial Conflict in the Digital Age: Mapping Technologies and Negotiation

This article examines the central, though understudied, role that a rapidly changing technology—mapping—plays in territorial conflict. As digital cartographic tools replace traditional paper maps, both the processes and outcomes of negotiation over territory change fundamentally. Digitization does not simply produce “better” maps that make settlements easier to reach. Instead, particular features of digital mapping reshape disputes over territory by altering the evaluation of possible solutions, changing the perceived value of territories, and bringing new actors into negotiation processes. Those effects are complex and context-sensitive. They promote conflict resolution in some circumstances but pose new obstacles to settlements in others. This article combines theory on mapping, negotiation, bargaining, and emotions in international relations. I first develop a set of general implications of digital mapping for the processes and outcomes of territorial negotiation. I then examine three illustrative cases: the 1995 Dayton Accords, the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission, and the 2010 border dispute between Costa Rica and Nicaragua. In each case, new features of digital mapping yielded unexpected effects on negotiation and dispute-resolution processes.

本文探讨了一项快速演进的技术——制图（mapping）在领土冲突中所发挥的核心作用，尽管该作用尚未得到充分研究。随着数字制图工具取代传统纸质地图，领土谈判的流程与结果均发生了根本性变革。数字化并非仅能生成"更优质"的地图，使领土争端的解决方案更易达成。恰恰相反，数字制图的特定属性通过重塑对潜在解决方案的评估、改变各方对领土价值的认知，以及将新行为体纳入谈判进程，重塑了领土争端格局。这些影响复杂且具有情境敏感性：在部分情境下，它们能够推动冲突解决，但在其他情境中则会为争端的最终解决带来新的阻碍。本文整合了国际关系领域中有关制图、谈判、讨价还价与情感的相关理论。首先，本文推导得出数字制图对领土谈判流程与结果的一系列一般性启示。随后，本文选取三个典型案例展开分析：1995年《代顿协议》、厄立特里亚-埃塞俄比亚边界委员会，以及2010年哥斯达黎加与尼加拉瓜之间的边境争端。在每个案例中，数字制图的全新属性均对谈判与争端解决进程产生了意料之外的影响。