Energy planning tools for low carbon transitions: an example of a multicriteria spatial planning tool for district heating

Energy planning tools can support transitions to low carbon energy by helping planners to identify technology options and scenarios. Exploring a case study of district heating development to support heat decarbonisation in the United Kingdom (UK), this article uses thematic analysis of qualitative semistructured interviews conducted between May 2013 and August 2015 with local and regional government officials, in order to consider how energy planning decision-making tools can be designed to support the early stages of low carbon transitions as a form of strategic niche management. The findings of this analysis are then tested through the development of a spatial heat planning tool covering England and Wales, designed to respond to the needs of niche actors seeking to facilitate early development of district heating projects. The tool is for use by local government actors as they seek to build social networks of stakeholders to support the technology change, to demonstrate its value and to support skills development. The research shows the importance of designing flexible tools which can go beyond techno-economic criteria and reflect the wider motivations and decision criteria of local actors, including social criteria.

能源规划工具（energy planning tools）可助力向低碳能源的转型进程，帮助规划人员识别技术选型与各类情景方案。本文以英国（United Kingdom, UK）供暖脱碳背景下的集中供热（district heating）发展案例为研究对象，采用主题分析法（thematic analysis）对2013年5月至2015年8月期间与地方及区域政府官员开展的定性半结构化访谈（qualitative semistructured interviews）展开分析，旨在探讨如何设计能源规划决策工具，以作为战略利基管理（strategic niche management）的一种形式，支撑低碳转型的早期阶段。随后，本文通过开发一款覆盖英格兰与威尔士的空间供热规划工具（spatial heat planning tool）对上述分析结论进行验证，该工具旨在响应致力于推动集中供热项目早期落地的利基行动者（niche actors）的需求。该工具可供地方政府相关行动者使用，助力其搭建利益相关方社交网络以支撑技术变革、彰显工具自身价值，并辅助相关技能培育。本研究表明，设计兼具灵活性的工具至关重要——此类工具不应仅局限于技术经济评判标准（techno-economic criteria），还需兼顾地方行动者的多元动机与决策准则，其中亦包含社会层面的评判标准。