Replication Data for: Political Regimes and Refugee Entries: The Preferences and Decisions of Displaced Persons and Host Governments

What drives refugee movements? Focusing on host countries' domestic political institutions, we argue that refugee entry is determined by the political regimes that shape the incentives of both host governments and displaced persons. Specifically, we theorize that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between political regimes and the volume of refugee entries. When the host country is autocratic, refugee volume becomes smaller due to displaced persons’ unwillingness to risk the high uncertainty of life under such regimes, and when the host country is democratic, refugee volume is similarly curbed due to democratic constraints on the host government. Consequently, a majority of refugees are clustered into anocratic regimes. Using a global dataset, a series of statistical analyses found strong evidence in support of our theoretical expectations regarding not only the hypothesized correlation between regime type and refugee movements but also the preferences of host governments and displaced persons that we theorize underlie this relationship.

是什么推动了难民流动？本研究聚焦于东道国的国内政治制度，提出难民入境规模由同时塑造了东道国政府与流离失所者双方激励机制的政治体制所决定。具体而言，我们通过理论推演提出，政治体制与难民入境规模之间存在倒U型关系：当东道国为威权政体时，由于流离失所者不愿承担此类政体下生活的高度不确定性风险，难民入境规模会相对更小；而当东道国为民主政体时，由于民主制度对东道国政府形成约束，难民入境规模同样会受到抑制。因此，多数难民会集中流向半威权混合政体（anocratic）国家。本研究基于全球数据集开展了一系列统计分析，结果不仅为我们关于政体类型与难民流动之间的假设相关性的理论预期提供了坚实实证支持，同时也验证了我们所提出的、作为该关系底层逻辑的东道国政府与流离失所者的偏好机制。