CSIRO_SRES_B1_TMIN

Project: IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Third Assessment Report data sets
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established by WMO und UNEP
to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information, relevant for the
understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and option for adaption and migration.
Projection of future trends for a number of key variables are provided through this
section of the DDC (http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/ddc_gcmdata.html).
This information contained in either IS92 emission scenarios (IPCC 1992), the Special
Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC 2000, SRES) or published model studies using data from
these scenarios.
Six alternative IPCC scenarios (IS92a to f) were published in the 1992 Supplementary Report
to the IPCC Assessment. These scenarios embodied a wide array of assumption affecting how
future greenhouse gas emissions might evolve in the absence of climate policies beyond
those already adoped.
The SRES scenarios have been constructed to explore future developments
in the global enviromental with special reference to the production of greenhouse gases
and aerosol precursor emission.
A set of four scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2) have been developed that each of this
storylines describes one possible demographic, polito-economic, societal and technological
future. Model experiments, also using different forcing scenarios, were calculated
at other modeling centres.
Emissions Scenarios. 2000 ,Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.)
Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 570
Summary: The SRES data sets were published by the IPCC in 2000 and classified
into four different scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2).
SRES_B1 storyline describes a global population similar to
A1 but with rapid change in economic structure toward a
service and information economy, with reduction in material
intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient
technologies.
The Mark 2 CSIRO coupled global climate model consists of the
atmospheric component which has 9 vertical levels with a R21
horizontal resolution and the ocean component which was based
on the GFDL code.
M2CSIRO (http://www.dar.csiro.au/publications/hennessy_1998a.html#ccm )
The changes of anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O and
sulphur dioxide are prescribed according to the above mentioned
scenario.

项目：政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）数据分发中心：第三次评估报告数据集

世界气象组织（World Meteorological Organization, WMO）与联合国环境规划署（United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP）联合设立了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC），旨在评估与理解气候变化、其潜在影响以及适应和减缓相关的科学、技术和社会经济信息。本数据分发中心（Data Distribution Centre, DDC）的对应板块（http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/ddc_gcmdata.html）提供了若干关键变量的未来趋势预测内容。

此类信息要么源自IS92排放情景（IPCC, 1992）、排放情景特别报告（Special Report on Emission Scenarios, SRES, IPCC, 2000），要么基于上述情景的数据通过已发表的模型研究获取。

IPCC于《IPCC评估报告》1992年增补报告中发布了6种可选情景（IS92a至IS92f）。这些情景涵盖了一系列假设，用以描述在未采取额外气候政策（即已实施气候政策之外）的情况下，未来温室气体排放的演变路径。

SRES情景旨在探究全球环境的未来发展态势，重点关注温室气体和气溶胶前体物的排放情况。研究团队构建了4组情景族（A1、A2、B1、B2），每组情景均对应一种可能的人口、政治经济、社会与技术发展路径。其他建模中心也基于不同的强迫情景开展了模型试验。

《排放情景》，2000年，政府间气候变化专门委员会特别报告，Nebojsa Nakicenovic与Rob Swart 主编，英国剑桥大学出版社，共570页。

【摘要】SRES数据集由IPCC于2000年发布，共划分为4组情景族（A1、A2、B1、B2）。
SRES_B1情景路径描述的全球人口规模与A1情景相近，但经济结构快速向服务型与信息型经济转型，物质消耗强度降低，并采用清洁且资源高效的技术。

马克2号英联邦科学与工业研究组织（Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO）耦合全球气候模型包含大气模块与海洋模块：大气模块设9个垂直层，水平分辨率为R21；海洋模块基于地球物理流体动力学实验室（Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL）代码开发。
M2CSIRO（http://www.dar.csiro.au/publications/hennessy_1998a.html#ccm）
二氧化碳（CO₂）、甲烷（CH₄）、一氧化二氮（N₂O）以及二氧化硫的人为排放变化均按照上述情景设定。