Replication Data for: Economic Distress and Support for Radical Right Parties – Evidence from Sweden

This paper studies the effects of economic distress on support for radical right parties. Using Swedish election data, I show that one layoff notice among low-skilled native-born workers in creases, on average, support for the Swedish radical right party the Sweden Democrats by 0.17 to 0.45 votes. The relationship between layoff notices and support for the Sweden Democrats is stronger in areas with a high share of low-skilled immigrants, and in areas with a low share of high-skilled immigrants. These findings are in line with theories suggesting that economically distressed voters oppose immigration as they fear increased labor market competition. In addition, I use individual-level survey data to show that self-reported unemployment risk is positively associated with voting for the Sweden Democrats among low-skilled respondents while the opposite is true for high-skilled respondents, echoing the aggregate-level findings.

本文探究经济困境对右翼激进政党支持率的影响。研究采用瑞典选举数据开展分析，结果显示：本土出生的低技能劳动者群体中每出现一则裁员通知，该国右翼激进政党瑞典民主党（Sweden Democrats）的平均支持率便会提升0.17至0.45票。在低技能移民占比偏高、高技能移民占比偏低的地区，裁员通知与瑞典民主党支持率之间的关联更为显著。上述研究结果与相关理论一致：经济困境中的选民因担忧劳动力市场竞争加剧而反对移民政策。此外，本文借助个体层面调研数据进一步验证发现，低技能受访者自述的失业风险与其为瑞典民主党投票的倾向呈正相关关系，而高技能受访者则呈现相反的关联趋势，这与总体层面的研究结果相呼应。